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Breaking down the odds to win the AFC South ahead of free agency

We take a look at the pre-free agency odds at DraftKings Sportsbook for who will win the AFC South. The Colts lead the way.

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The Houston Texans have dominated the AFC South in recent years and have claimed six division titles since 2010. Recent developments have caused their title odds to drop significantly, though, as the Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, and Jacksonville Jaguars are seen as more desirable betting options. Oddsmakers only consider two teams to be realistic contenders, but we’ll go over the odds for each squad in the division here.

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Indianapolis Colts: -106

The Colts seemed destined to drop off following Philip Rivers’ retirement but are now odds-on favorites after acquiring Carson Wentz from the Philadelphia Eagles. Indianapolis made waves with its defense last season while its offense struggled, and things came full circle when Jonathan Taylor established himself as one of the more dangerous, young backs in the NFL down the home stretch in the regular season. Wentz struggled to get anything going in Philly but now has the support of a top-notch offensive line. He’ll have to make the most of his underwhelming receiving corps, but maybe T.Y. Hilton (if he re-signs) and company can take a step forward with a more athletic quarterback.

Tennessee Titans: +120

Last season, the Titans secured their first division title since 2008 and are bringing back their most important offensive weapons in 2021. Ryan Tannehill carried over his efficiency from 2020 and was able to depend on the nonstop, downhill running Derrick Henry when his top receivers — AJ Brown and Corey Davis — weren’t factors. Davis could be on his way out in free agency, but Tennessee should remain one of the more productive offenses in the league without him. This division is a two-horse race, as the next two teams appear bound to endure rebuilds.

Jacksonville Jaguars: +1300

The Jaguars have given up on Gardner Minshew and seem certain to begin a new era by drafting Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence with the first pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Jacksonville won only one game last year, so its outlook for the upcoming season isn’t great. Young players like DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault, and James Robinson are bright spots, but the Jaguars’ porous defense will hold it back. Only the Detroit Lions gave up more points than Jacksonville during the regular season.

Houston Texans: +1400

Deshaun Watson wants nothing to do with the Texans, and that’s why they have the worst odds in the division. Watson is easily the best quarterback in the division, but there’s a belief that he’s willing to sit out until he’s traded in 2021. The 25-year-old raises the floor of any team he’s on significantly, but not having Will Fuller, who led the Texans in receiving yards and touchdowns last season before getting suspended down the stretch for violating the NFL’s PED policy, will be a challenge. Houston wouldn’t be worse than Jacksonville with Watson on the field, but the uncertainty surrounding his future makes it hard to expect much from the Texans.

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