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How public is betting and DFS considerations for Petr Yan vs. Aljamain Sterling

Petr Yan and Aljamain Sterling meet for the bantamweight championship in the main event of UFC 259 on March 6th. We break down how the betting public is picking the fight and the DFS pricing from DraftKings.

Petr Yan of Russia poses for a portrait after his victory over Jose Aldo during the UFC 251 event at Flash Forum on UFC Fight Island on July 12, 2020 on Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC

Update 12:15 a.m.: Aljamain Sterling wins by the disqualification of Petr Yan by an illegal knee.

Sterling closed as a +112 underdog at DraftKings Sportsbook, and was +650 to win via KO, TKO... or the rarely used DQ

In a bantamweight title bout on the main card of UFC 259, Petr Yan will take on Aljamain Sterling in the main event Saturday live from Las Vegas and available on ESPN+.

The 28-year-old Yan enters this contest with a professional fighting record of 15-1 and as the favorite. He is receiving 58% of the handle and 54% of the bets. “No Mercy” Yan is also ranked 10th in the men’s pound-for-pound rankings and is the champion of the bantamweight division.

Yan last fought at UFC 251 in July, where he defeated Jose Aldo by technical knockout in Round 5 for his seventh-straight win in UFC. The Russian fighter will look to win this match using his striking and grappling abilities.

Yan averages 5.65 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy of 46 percent. But he does not take a lot of strikes in return, absorbing 3.15 per minute, with his defense at 67 percent. The championship fighter possesses a 1.73 takedown average per 15 minutes and 53 percent accuracy, along with a takedown defense of 87 percent.

As for Sterling, he walks into the UFC APEX almost at even money (-106). “Funk Master” is receiving 42% of the handle and 46% of the bets. The New York Native has a professional fighting record of 19-3 and ranked first in the bantamweight division.

Sterling is entering Saturday’s championship fight on a hot streak as he has won five consecutive bouts. “Funk Master” Sterling last fought at UFC 250 in June, where he defeated Cory Sandhagen by submission in Round 1.

Just like his opponent in Yan, Sterling has the capabilities to win with either striking or grappling skills. The 31-year-old lands 4.82 significant strikes per minute with 50 percent accuracy. Furthemore, he absorbs 1.94 strikes per minute, and has solid defense against them at 67 percent. Lastly, Sterling has a takedown average of 1.89, but only lands them at 29 percent accuracy.

Here are the odds and betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Petr Yan vs. Aljamain Sterling at UFC 259 on March 6th.

Odds and Betting splits

Petr Yan: -115 (58% of action, 54% of bets)
Aljamain Sterling: -106 (42% of action, 46% of bets)

Winning Method

Petr Yan By Decision: +275 (4% of action, 15% of bets)
Petr Yan By KO, TKO or DQ: +275 (41% of action, 29% of bets)
Petr Yan By Submission: +1400 (2% of action, 2% of bets)
Aljamain Sterling By Decision: +325 (7% of action, 19% of bets)
Aljamain Sterling By KO, TKO or DQ: +650 (14% of action, 6% of bets)
Aljamain Sterling By Submission: +300 (29% of action, 27% of bets)
Tie: +6600 (4% of action, 2% of bets)

DraftKings DFS Values

Petr Yan: $8,400
Aljamain Sterling: $7,800

You cannot go wrong with either in DFS play for UFC 259. “No Mercy” Yan is averaging 107 FPPF and has scored 154 and 111 fantasy points in back-to-back fights. Meanwhile, “Funk Master” Sterling is averaging 79 FPPF, but has exceeded that point total in five-straight bouts.

If I had to make a choice, I’d lean towards Sterling, who is priced cheaper but can provide a ton of value in the significant strike department. In three out of his last five wins, the 31-year-old has landed 121.3 significant strikes. If he can do this against Yan, who absorbs 3.15 strikes per minute, then Sterling might have a chance to score big.

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