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How will 17 games impact NFL win totals?

The NFL has gifted/cursed us with another game, giving us 17 on the season. How will that change impact win totals for the 2021 season?

Head Coach Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs speak before performing drills at Kansas City Chiefs practice prior to Super Bowl LIV at Baptist Health Training Facility at Nova Southern University on January 29, 2020 in Davie, Florida. Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images

The NFL just made the new 17-game season official, but there are still many questions about how the extra game will impact the sport on multiple levels. One aspect will be season long betting futures like over/unders on win totals. Tuesday afternoon, DraftKings Sportsbook posted their initial win total odds for all 32 NFL teams.

But before we get into that, how weird is an 8-9 season? or 10-7? or any record for that matter! But I digress.

With the extra game and no real extra bye week, NFL bettors might need to account for rest more than they have in the past. Understanding that a good team might rest their starters in their 16th game was something we needed to account for, but now the chances of teams resting star players with minor injuries will likely go up, while teams could also clinch playoff spots “earlier” than ever before.

Below we have DraftKings Sportsbook’s win totals for the newly expanded season. The Kansas City Chiefs lead the way with a 12 win total, while the Houston Texans hold down the bottom at 4.5 wins. Can’t argue with those numbers, but there are plenty that will stick out to you as we start evaluating the 2021 NFL landscape.

Will the Arizona Cardinals improve from their 8-8 2020 season? If so, there is your over. Will Trevor Lawrence make the Jacksonville Jaguars contenders early on or will the growing pains be too painful to get over six wins? Can the San Francisco 49ers win 11 games with potentially a rookie starting quarterback? Is Jalen Hurts the answer for the Eagles? He’ll need just seven wins to hit the over. And the questions could go on and on. This is why we like sports!

Here are a couple of examples just to help you wrap your head around the numbers below:

The Pittsburgh Steelers over/under is 8.5, with the over listed at -125 and tnder listed at +103. That means over is favored.

The Indianapolis Colts over/under is 10, with over listed at +110, under listed at -134. That means under is favored.

If both teams are set at -110, there is no favorite.

2021 NFL win totals — Opening numbers

Team Win total Over price Under price
Team Win total Over price Under price
49ers 10.5 +123 -150
Bears 7 -121 +100
Bengals 6.5 -110 -110
Bills 10.5 -110 -110
Broncos 7.5 -110 -110
Browns 9.5 -150 +123
Buccaneers 11.5 -110 -110
Cardinals 8 -110 -110
Chargers 9 +103 -125
Chiefs 12 -110 -110
Colts 10 +110 -134
Cowboys 9.5 +110 -134
Dolphins 9 -121 +100
Eagles 6.5 -150 +123
Falcons 7 -143 +118
Giants 7 -110 -110
Jaguars 6.5 -110 -110
Jets 6.5 +123 -150
Lions 5 -110 -110
Packers 10.5 -143 +118
Panthers 7.5 -110 -110
Patriots 9 -143 +118
Raiders 7.5 -110 -110
Rams 10.5 +123 -150
Ravens 11 -125 +103
Saints 9 -110 -110
Seahawks 9.5 -110 -110
Steelers 8.5 -125 +103
Texans 4.5 -125 +103
Titans 9.5 +123 -150
Vikings 8.5 100 -121
Washington 8 -110 -110

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