The Florida State Seminoles will take on the Michigan Wolverines in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament on Sunday night and the Noles are a trendy upset pick.
FSU currently sits as a 2.5-point underdog, the point total is holding at 143.5. For moneyline bettors, you can grab Florida State at +120 or Michigan at -141.
No. 4 Florida State: 18-6 (12-10-2 ATS)
December: 3-4 ATS
January: 5-1 ATS
February: 2-2-1 ATS
March: 2-3-1 ATS
Vs. Total: 14-9-1
In conference: 9-6-1 ATS
In NCAA Tournament: 1-1 ATS
FSU had been inconsistent at times this season, but ended the regular season by winning eight of their last 10 games straight up. Though against the spread, they’ve been a bit less consistent. In their last five games, they’ve won ATS just ones. If you expand that out to their previous 10 matchups, they’ve covered just three times. Though there is some reason for optimism, as one of those came in their most recent game against Colorado. The spread is also very low, tied for the lowest of any Sweet 16 game and the Noles are 2-2 on the season when the line is sitting at 2.5 points or lower in either direction.
They’ve been a bit more consistent when putting money on the point total, but not anything concrete. In their last two games the point total has been the same or less than this current line, at 143.5, and the under has hit in each of them. They’ve hit an over six times this season when the line sits at 143.5 or above, and have reached the over in half of their last six opportunities to hit.
The Noles finished the season ranked 25th in the NCAA NET rankings and went 3-4 against quad one opponents.
No. 1 Michigan: 22-4 (18-8 ATS)
November/December: 6-2 ATS
January: 5-1 ATS
February: 4-1 ATS
March: 3-4 ATS
Vs. Total: 11-15
In conference: 13-6 ATS
In NCAA Tournament: 1-1 ATS
The Wolverines started the season on fire against the spread, but cooled off as we got into the most important month of the year. They’ve never been an underdog this season and most of the time the spread is pretty large in their favor. But, a better way to look at the history here would be to say that of the eight times this season they were favored by just five points or less, they’ve covered in seven of them.
The point total tends to skew under for Michigan, which isn’t a shock considering they play at one of the slowest paces of any team still in the NCAA Tournament according to KenPom. In their last five games, the over has hit three times, but if you extend that out to the last 10 contests, they’ve only hit the over four times. They’ve seen a point total higher than this game on 11 occasions this season and have hit the over in five of them, but have only done it twice in their last six opportunities.
Michigan finished the season clocking in at fourth in the NCAA NET rankings and have a record of 8-3 against quad one opponents.