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After three full days of college basketball in bulk, the NCAA Tournament’s second round wraps up on Monday, March 22nd, and plenty of bettors have gotten their wagers in early. With eight games on the slate, there should be plenty of compelling matchups starting at 12:10 p.m. ET and conclude at approximately midnight.
Below is a look at where the public is placing their wagers, and we’ll point out a few we agree and disagree on.
No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 2 Iowa
Oddsmakers set the over/under at 148 for this game and as sports bettors love to do, they’re going after the over heavily. Just 54% of the bets are going to the over for this game, but 88% of the money is going in that direction. However, we disagree and think the under is the play. It’s true both teams are better on the offensive end than they are on defense, but neither team plays especially fast in terms of possessions per game, especially the Ducks, which are No. 276 in that category. Iowa has certainly improved on the defensive end of the floor compared to earlier in the season, and Oregon should be ready with a ton of energy after their first round game against VCU was declared a no-contest due to COVID-19 protocols.
No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 8 Oklahoma
Gonzaga comes into this game favored by 14 points, and the majority of bettors and money are going to the Bulldogs with 55% of the bets and 67% of the handle expecting a Gonzaga cover. We agree on this one, and those numbers should be higher. Gonzaga just went out and blew out nearly every team they played this entire season even in the non-conference with some very good basketball programs. The Bulldogs should be a heavy favorite to win it all, and it’s unlikely Oklahoma will get in their way especially without the Sooners’ second leading scorer De’Vion Harmon due to COVID-19.
No. 5 Colorado vs. No. 4 Florida State
It’s important to not overreact to one game during the NCAA Tournament, and that’s what bettors are doing when they’re taking the over 141 in this matchup. The over is getting 71% of the bets and 76% of the handle, and this is a mistake. Yes, Colorado went out and shot the ball insanely well in a 96-73 win over the Georgetown Hoyas in Round 1, shooting 64% from the three-point line. This was the Buffaloes’ best scoring game of the season, and they rank No. 300 in possessions per game this season, making it unlikely to replicate their performance, making this total way too high. Let’s roll with the under.
2021 NCAA Tournament betting splits, Second round Monday
| Teams | Point Spread | % Handle | % Bets | Total Points | % Handle | % Bets | Moneyline | % Handle | % Bets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams | Point Spread | % Handle | % Bets | Total Points | % Handle | % Bets | Moneyline | % Handle | % Bets |
| Oregon | +5.5 | 26% | 28% | Over 148.0 | 88% | 54% | +195 | 35% | 32% |
| Iowa | -5.5 | 74% | 72% | Under 148.0 | 12% | 46% | -265 | 65% | 68% |
| Oklahoma | +14 | 33% | 45% | Over 154.0 | 80% | 55% | +800 | 47% | 30% |
| Gonzaga | -14 | 67% | 55% | Under 154.0 | 20% | 45% | -1250 | 53% | 70% |
| Abilene Christian | +5 | 19% | 27% | Over 133.5 | 53% | 58% | +180 | 21% | 39% |
| UCLA | -5 | 81% | 73% | Under 133.5 | 47% | 42% | -220 | 79% | 61% |
| Ohio | +5 | 76% | 73% | Over 148.5 | 22% | 18% | +163 | 63% | 64% |
| Creighton | -5 | 24% | 27% | Under 148.5 | 78% | 82% | -215 | 37% | 36% |
| LSU | +5 | 44% | 46% | Over 148.0 | 49% | 36% | +170 | 43% | 34% |
| Michigan | -5 | 56% | 54% | Under 148.0 | 51% | 64% | -215 | 57% | 66% |
| Colorado | +1.5 | 49% | 48% | Over 141.0 | 76% | 71% | +104 | 68% | 64% |
| Florida State | -1.5 | 51% | 52% | Under 141.0 | 24% | 29% | -124 | 32% | 36% |
| Maryland | +5.5 | 23% | 33% | Over 139.0 | 60% | 57% | +195 | 21% | 29% |
| Alabama | -5.5 | 77% | 67% | Under 139.0 | 40% | 43% | -240 | 79% | 71% |
| USC | -1 | 40% | 44% | Over 134.5 | 82% | 79% | -114 | 51% | 33% |
| Kansas | +1 | 60% | 56% | Under 134.5 | 18% | 21% | -105 | 49% | 67% |
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