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INTRO
To help find The Chosen 68, we choose the Wisdom of The Crowd to decide which teams are in and which teams are out of the 2021 NCAA Tournament.
Similar to Nate Silver’s model of predicting elections, we take the data from five bracketologists and update it each week. All bracket makers shall be counted equally, and we’ll ask expert for their 16 teams on the bubble: The last eight in the NCAA Tournament in their estimation, and the first eight out.
Some list this data automatically with their projections, but for the others we reach directly to directly to get their most accurate picture.
Our “model” is pretty simple: 16 points for being the eighth-from-last team in the NCAA tournament, to one point for having seven teams between you and even making the First Four. If a team has an average of 9.0 points or higher, they should reach the NCAA field according to the averages.
Because some teams will avoid the last-eight-in all-together, while other brackets will have that same team on the bubble, we’ll mark teams “Safe” that are ahead of the 16 points available on the top “next four in” line.
Our bracketologists:
Joe Lunardi, ESPN.com (from this tweet)
Chris Dobbertean, Blogging The Bracket
Patrick Stevens, Washington Post
Shelby Mast, Bracketwag.com
Kerry Miller, Bleacher Report
Below are the bubble selections for all our tracked bracketologists for March 11:
Bracketologists March 12
| Points | ESPN | Blogging the Bracket | Washington Post | Bracket Wag | Bleacher Report |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | ESPN | Blogging the Bracket | Washington Post | Bracket Wag | Bleacher Report |
| 16 | VCU | UCLA | Georgia Tech | Louisville | Georgia Tech |
| 15 | UCLA | Michigan State | Louisville | St. Bonaventure | Louisville |
| 14 | Michigan State | VCU | Michigan State | Wichita State | UCLA |
| 13 | Louisville | Drake | UCLA | VCU | Wichita State |
| Last Four In | |||||
| 12 | Drake | Louisville | Mississippi | Drake | Colorado State |
| 11 | Colorado State | Colorado State | Saint Louis | Colorado State | Drake |
| 10 | Syracuse | Utah State | Drake | Syracuse | Utah State |
| 9 | Utah State | Syracuse | Colorado State | Boise State | Syracuse |
| First Four Out | |||||
| 8 | Mississippi | Saint Louis | Syracuse | Utah State | Boise State |
| 7 | Saint Louis | Boise State | Utah State | Saint Louis | Saint Louis |
| 6 | Boise State | Mississippi | Seton Hall | SMU | Mississippi |
| 5 | Seton Hall | Seton Hall | Boise State | Memphis | Seton Hall |
| Next Four Out | |||||
| 4 | Xavier | Memphis | Xavier | Seton Hall | Xavier |
| 3 | Memphis | St. John's | Duke | Mississippi | Memphis |
| 2 | SMU | Xavier | Memphis | St. John's | SMU |
| 1 | St. John's | SMU | St. John's | Xavier | Belmont |
Here are the averages for the teams on the bubble. Remember an average of 9.0 or better means you should be in the tournament.
March 12 Bubble Averages
| Team | Safe | Points | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Safe | Points | Average |
| Georgia Tech | 3 Safe | 16 | 8.0 |
| Wichita State | 3 Safe | 27 | 5.4 |
| Michigan State | 2 Safe | 43 | 14.3 |
| VCU | 2 Safe | 43 | 14.3 |
| UCLA | 1 Safe | 58 | 14.5 |
| Louisville | 71 | 14.2 | |
| Drake | 58 | 11.6 | |
| Colorado State | 54 | 10.8 | |
| Syracuse | 46 | 9.2 | |
| Utah State | 44 | 8.8 | |
| Saint Louis | 40 | 8.0 | |
| Mississippi | 35 | 7.0 | |
| Boise State | 35 | 7.0 | |
| Seton Hall | 25 | 5.0 | |
| Memphis | 17 | 3.4 | |
| Xavier | 15 | 3.0 | |
| SMU | 11 | 2.2 | |
| St. John's | 7 | 1.4 | |
| Duke* | 3 | 1.5 | |
| Belmont | 1 | 0.2 |
- Xavier played themselves right out of a spot last night with their OT loss to Butler. If they’re not interested in the NIT, they can stop going to practice when they get back to Cincinnati.
- Syracuse’s win over NC State makes them the most interesting case in the field. The Orange would likely lock it up with a win over Virginia today, and will be sweating bullets on Selection Sunday if they lose.
- The Seton Hall-St John’s game today has become an eliminator, with the winner still in the mix and the loser for sure going home.
- Duke probably gets on the right side of all bubbles with a win over Florida State in the ACC quarterfinals today.
- Georgia Tech (vs. Miami) and Mississippi (vs. South Carolina) can’t help themselves much today, but can certainly hurt their cases with losses.