NBA Rookie of the Year: Has LaMelo Ball locked up award?

Following the 2020 NBA Draft, many believed that the Rookie of the Year race would be wide open. Well, we’re about two months into the 2020-21 season and that sentiment hasn’t held true at all. Sure, it took a little bit, but Charlotte Hornets rookie guard LaMelo Ball has made it clear he wants the award through how he’s played in his first season. For about a month, there were other rookies involved in the race: James Wiseman, Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Haliburton, etc. While Haliburton may have an outside shot, it’s still Ball’s award to win/lose.

Let’s take a look at the updated NBA Rookie of the Year odds on DraftKings Sportsbook and break down if anyone has a realistic shot at catching Ball.

Week 8 update — As I alluded to above, Ball should run away with the award. The Hornets are dealing with an injury to Devonte’ Graham, which has shoved Ball even further into the spotlight in the starting lineup. Really, Ball should have been starting from the beginning of the season.

Ball has pretty much everything going for him, right? He’s got the stats; he’s averaging 14.2 points, 6.2 assists and 5.9 rebounds with 1.4 steals per game. This is all while starting just five of 25 games this season. If said season ended today, the Hornets would be back in the postseason for the first time since 2015-16. A lot of that has to do with Gordon Hayward’s signing. The other reason Charlotte is this improved? Ball. On top of all of that, he’s a walking highlight reel. Only someone as talented as Ball can turn Miles Bridges into an alley-oop machine.

So this begs the question: Can anyone catch Ball? Haliburton seems to be the only realistic option in the betting market right now. Haliburton had been having a similar rookie season to Ball off the bench for the Sacramento Kings. The Iowa State product has been primarily coming off the bench, starting just one out of 21 games this season. Haliburton has the stats at 11.9 points and 5.4 assists with 1.2 steals per game this season. Similar to the Hornets, if the season was done on February 9th, the Kings would be back in the playoffs for the first time since 2005-06 (way longer than Charlotte). Is this all Haliburton? Of course not. Has he been a spark plug off the bench? Absolutely.

It would take a lot for Haliburton to overcome the deficit and win ROTY ahead of Ball. At this point, it would take something like an injury (knock on wood) to stop Ball from winning. Even before Graham and Terry Rozier went down, Ball had been in the lead. The Hornets will likely keep him in the starting lineup, which gives him an edge over Haliburton. So unless De’Aaron Fox goes down (again, knock on wood), then Haliburton should continue to come off the bench.

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