The Super Bowl is a little over a week away, and DraftKings Sportsbook is here to count down to the big game. The book is offering a different boost on prop bet odds each of the the ten days before the title match. You’ll have the day to bet it and then the boost goes away.
On Monday, DraftKings is boosting the odds for the octopus — a double-dip on a touchdown and a two-point conversion on the same drive (receiving/rushing TDs only). Odds boosted from +1100 to +1250. This is good in New Jersey, New Hampshire, Indiana, Iowa, West Virginia, Illinois, Tennessee, Michigan, and Virginia. For those in Colorado and Pennsylvania, the book is boosting the odds on any missed field goal from +115 to +135.
Two-point conversion double-dip?
NFL teams have started to go for two-point conversions more often, as the analytics show that, on average, a team can expect to score more points by going for the additional point despite the lower conversion rate. That expectation was facilitated by the extra point being moved back in 2015. We have seen two-point conversions increase this season, but there is still room for it to become the norm at some point if teams play the numbers more often.
The Kansas City Chiefs only tried three two-point conversions in 2020. They were all passes and they were all successful, with Mecole Hardman, Darrel Williams and Travis Kelce converting. Each one came in the fourth quarter and none were to the same player that scored the touchdown.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers tried two two-point conversions and were unsuccessful both times with pass attempts to Mike Evans. But, one of those failed attempts did come after an Evans touchdown, while the other came after a Rob Gronkowski touchdown.
We know how much Brady loves throwing to Evans around the goal line and how much Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid like to create misdirection and spread the ball out at the goal line. The chances are slim, but there is some hope in a game that should be a scoring fest. Especially when you consider the Chiefs have the worst red zone defense in the league, allowing touchdowns on 76.6% of drives beyond the opponent’s 20-yard line. I wish we could get odds on just Evans getting a double-dip.
Missed field goal?
In the last Super Bowl, Harrison Butker and Robbie Gould made their three field goals, with none longer than 42-yards. But that isn’t the norm, as the ten Super Bowls before that had kickers converting just 66.7 percent of their field goals over 40 yards.
The extra pressure the Super Bowl brings is not great for kickers. This game will also be played outside and we don’t yet know what the wind conditions might be.
Harrison Butker made 25-of-27 field goals this season, with his two misses coming from 40-49 yards. Ryan Succop, who played with the Chiefs his first five seasons, has made 28-of-31 field goals with his three misses coming over 40 yards.
So far, Succop is 8-for-8 on field goals this postseason, while Butker is 4-5. Both have been playing well this season, but with total points likely getting into the 50s, we are going to see some field goal attempts and the odds of one going awry are pretty good.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN). 21+ (18+ NH). CO/IL/IN/IA/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/MI only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.