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Breaking down NFL betting splits for Week 13 MNF matchup: Patriots vs. Bills

We break down betting splits Week 13’s Monday Night Football matchup featuring the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) makes a throw in the second half against the New Orleans Saints at the Caesars Superdome. Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

With their only being five weeks left in the season, the playoff race is heating up both in the NFC and AFC. One game that will have an affect on the race is tonight’s game between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills.

The Patriots (8-4) have been one of the best teams over the last month and some change with a six-game winning streak. New England is also undefeated on the road this season at 5-0 and currently in first place in the AFC East. The Bills (7-4) got back into the win column last week against the Saints after losing 41-15 at home to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 11.

Below we’ll take a look at the odds and splits, which are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Patriots vs. Bills, Week 13 betting splits

Betting the spread: The Bills are three-point favorites. 66% of the handle and 59% of bets are being placed on the Patriots to cover.

Is the public right? With the way the Patriots are playing right now, it doesn’t come as a surprise to see the public side with them. As previously mentioned, they’ve won six straight games and are perfect on the road. New England is 6-0 against the spread in their last six games and 5-0 ATS on the road this season.

But you should not count out the Bills, who can put points up in a blink of an eye. Now, they won’t be able to do that against the Patriots’ defense, which is only allowing 15.8 points per game this season. The Bills are 3-2 ATS when they are home favorites this season, but 3-0 ATS when they are playing against the AFC East. This is a good spot to fade the public and go with the Bills.

Betting the over/under: The point total is installed at 41. 61% of the handle is on the under and 76% of bets are being placed on the over.

Is the public right? The total has gone over six out of New England’s last six games this season. Additionally, the over is 3-0 in their last three meetings between these two teams. Both of these teams have stellar defenses, which should play a massive role in this Monday night contest. However, the Bills are without star cornerback Tre’Davious White for the rest of the season and that should lead New England to throw more. Take the over.

Betting the moneyline: The Bills are home favorites with moneyline odds at -145. Moneyline odds for the Patriots are at +125. 74% of the handle and 64% of bets are being placed on the Patriots to win.

Is the public right? Despite the Patriots being underdogs (+125), they are receiving a lot of love from the public in this primetime matchup. The Bills know that if they want to get back into first place in the AFC East, they’ll have to win tonight at home, which we saw them do convincingly earlier this season. Streaks are meant to come to an end and I can’t see the Bills losing two straight at home after how they played a couple of weeks ago against Indy.

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