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Update 10:59 pm: We’ve seen enough, Michigan is going to beat Iowa, and we say that with a 21-3 score early in the fourth quarter.
That means the below list holds, and it’s Alabama, Michigan, Georgia, and Cincinnati for the national championship. You could maybe make an argument for flipping UC and UGA, but we think this will be the order to avoid a rematch of the SEC Championship, despite the fact the selection committee is not charged to do such a thing and they’re not supposed to bring any make these adjustments.
It’s college football, and the administrators tend to do what they want anyway. And even though they’d probably like to put in Baylor or Notre Dame over UC, there’s just not a reasonable path there.
As the last day of the season is filled with the usual chaos, championship weekend leaves the College Football Playoff Selection Committee with some decisions to make ahead of selecting the four teams that will play in the semifinals. Here’s where things stands as of right now.
No. 1 Alabama. If you beat the No. 1 team in the country on a their other home field this badly, you have the best win of the season of any team. The Tide needed four overtimes to beat a 6-6 Auburn last week, and then they came back and pulled a 6.5-point upset over their de facto rival. They deserve this spot.
No. 2 Michigan: If they beat Iowa by the spread-projected 10.5 points or so, they’ll be worthy of this spot. Beating Ohio State last week by 15 points was probably the best win of the season until what Bama did today.
No. 3 Georgia: I’d place them No. 4 in terms of actual value, but I sincerely doubt the CFP Committee is going to give us a rematch in the Cotton or Orange Bowl. The justifications from chairman Gary Barta have been, ahem, a stretch at times. They’ll put themselves into knots to delay Bama-UGA II as long as possible.
No. 4 Cincinnati: UC did all they needed to do. A 35-20 win over a quality Houston team makes then 13-0, and the beat the team they needed to in the regular season in No. 6 Notre Dame. If they don’t get in, I hope the attorneys are in touch immediately.