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Breaking down NFL betting splits for Week 16 MNF matchup: Dolphins vs. Saints

We break down betting splits Week 16’s Monday Night Football matchup featuring the Miami Dolphins and New Orleans Saints.

Ian Book #16 of the New Orleans Saints warms up before a game against the Dallas Cowboys at the the Caesars Superdome on December 02, 2021 in New Orleans, Louisiana. Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

The Miami Dolphins can get a big boost in their playoff hopes this week when they take on the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football tonight at the SuperDome. The Saints are trying to keep their head above water and rookie QB Ian Book will be getting his first career start. Such a big game brings major implications, both for the players as well as bettors around the world.

Odds and splits below are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Dolphins vs. Saints, Week 16 betting splits

Betting the spread: The Dolphins are 3.5-point favorites. 75% of the handle and 65% of bets are being placed on the Dolphins to cover.

Is the public right? The public seems like they’re in a good spot here. The Dolphins are on an absolute tear, winning six games in a row. Their offense seems to be trending in the right direction, with QB Tua Tagovailoa coming into his own. They’ll face a tough test Monday night though, the New Orleans defense has been dominant in recent weeks and allowed just nine points to the defending Super Bowl champions last week.

Even though the defense is there for New Orleans, the offense isn’t. They’ve struggled with a rotating cast of characters under center since Jameis Winston tore his ACL early in the season.

The Fins might only score 10, but that will probably still be four more than New Orleans can score.

Betting the over/under: The point total is installed at 37.5. 51% of the handle and 68% of bets are being placed on the over.

Is the public right? Despite the low point total, I hesitate to bet the over here. New Orleans is starting rookie QB Ian Book, who will be getting his first NFL action. Even with more experienced QBs at the helm, the Saints offense has been pretty ugly in recent weeks. Their defense is what carries them.

Miami’s offense is solid, but unremarkable, and has benefitted from an easy schedule recently. This is the best defensive unit they’ll have faced in quite some time, so I don’t see a ton of points being scored on either side, unless there are a few defensive scores.

Betting the moneyline: The Dolphins are road favorites with moneyline odds at -165. Moneyline odds for the Saints are at +145. 64% of the handle and 52% of bets are being placed on the Dolphins to win.

Is the public right? Yes, the public is right on this one. While both teams are scrapping to stay alive in the playoff picture, only the ‘Fins have a realistic chance and only the ‘Fins control their own destiny. They’ve been playing better and better each week. The Saints have looked great on one side of the ball, but the offensive side has been rough. Even though they’re on the road, the Dolphins should come away with a win.

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