You’d think after looking at the NFL MVP odd heading into this week that there was no way Aaron Rodgers could get back to being the favorite. Not so fast. The Green Bay Packers pulled off a road 31-30 win over the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday afternoon and Rodgers is charging to repeat as the winner of the award.
Tom Brady entered this week as the favorite at -150 with Rodgers at +600 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Those lines have shrunk as a result of Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers struggling on SNF against the New Orleans Saints. As long as A-Rod and the Packers keep this up, he’ll have the best shot to overtake the GOAT for favorite.
NFL MVP Favorites
We’ve sort of been leaning towards a two-man race the past few weeks and now things got a lot tighter. The Bucs stumbled on Sunday Night Football against the Saints, granted the entire TB offense got decimated in the game. Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Leonard Fournette all left with injuries.
Regardless, it wasn’t like Brady was playing well before the injuries happened. He finished the game with 213 yards and an INT. It was the second time EVER Brady has been shut out and the first time since 2006. There’s no reason for the Bucs to get shutout at home against Taysom Hill and the Saints in a 9-0 loss. So now Brady and Rodgers are closer together in the race and it’ll depend on which team gets the 1-seed and which QB plays the best down the stretch.
So right now the play among the favorites is to go with Rodgers to take care of business in the final three weeks. The Packers should only get better. CB Jaire Alexander, LB Za’Darius Smith and OT David Bakhtiari are close to returning. That’s the top shutdown corner and pass-rusher on an already strong defense, and one of the best offensive linemen in the NFL when healthy. That could help Green Bay ensure the top seed. All A-Rod would have to do is what he’s been doing all month.
NFL MVP Sleepers
The sleeper market opened back up in a big way this week with Brady faltering against the Saints. Patrick Mahomes is on pace for 4,600 passing yards and 34 TDs. Kansas City has won seven in a row and have a very good chance of being the top seed in the AFC. The Chiefs gained a game on both the Patriots and Titans this past week. All the Chiefs have to do is run the table and the bye in the playoffs is there.
It really has more to do with Brady and Rodgers at this point. Mahomes would need both QBs to slip up in the next three weeks in order to jump back into serious consideration. Is that possible? Of course. It also looks like Brady and the Bucs could be in trouble with all those injuries. So anything can happen and Mahomes isn’t a bad sprinkle.
Among the other sleepers are Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor, Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen and Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott. Los Angeles Rams QB Matt Stafford is also in this group but we gotta see what happens on Tuesday against the Seattle Seahawks.
JT is my favorite of this bunch. He’s got a great narrative carrying the Colts to the playoffs, which is looking more and more likely. Indy also has a shot at the AFC South division title and Taylor is the first player you point to when talking about the Colts’ resurgence. He ran for another 170 yards and a TD in Week 15 vs. the Pats in a 27-17 win. Taylor could have a record-setting season while being one of a few RBs to lift his team into the postseason.
Dak has been fine and the Cowboys are in position to win the NFC East. It’s just Prescott doesn’t have the stats and Dallas won’t overtake both the Bucs and Packers in the standings. It would take A LOT for Prescott to win MVP at this point. Crazier things have happened but I’d count Dak out.
Allen is also in a “too little, too late” type of situation despite a win in Week 15 over the Panthers. The Bills have a shot at the AFC East with a big matchup against New England on the road in Week 16. A win in that game would launch the Bills into first place with two games to go. Similar to Dak, though, Allen just hasn’t been all that dominant. He threw for 3 TDs against the Panthers but also threw another pick, was inefficient and didn’t do much with his legs. Allen would have to light the Pats up, win out and hope everyone ahead of him forgets how to play football to win NFL MVP.
Here’s a look at the top candidates for MVP. Check out full MVP odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Aaron Rodgers: +125
Tom Brady: +175
Matthew Stafford: +1000
Jonathan Taylor: +1000
Patrick Mahomes: +1000
Josh Allen: +1600
Justin Herbert: +2500
Cooper Kupp: +4000
Dak Prescott: +4000
Kyler Murray: +4000
Lamar Jackson: +10000
Kirk Cousins: +10000
Joe Burrow: +10000
Ryan Tannehill: +10000
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), or 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat. (CT). 21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/MI/NH/NJ/PA/ TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.