Final polling for Virginia Governor’s Race

Today is Election Day in Virginia, with voters in Old Dominion going to the polls to determine who will be their governor for the next four years. It’s a job Democrat Terry McAuliffe has held before, but the conventional wisdom says late momentum appears to be on the side of Republican Glenn Youngkin.

Polls opened at 6:00 a.m. this morning, and will close at 7:00 p.m. at which point anyone in line will be allowed to cast a ballot. We’ll have coverage from a wagering perspective here at DK Nation later this evening, but for now here’s how national polling organizations see the race heading into the final day.

At PredictIt right now, Youngkin leads McAuliffe .57 to .46 on a market where Americans can wager on the outcome of the election.

It’s worth keeping in mind that polling misses in statewide races have never been bigger. California Governor Gavin Newsom appeared to be on the rocks in his recall election, with some polls putting him behind, but he ended up winning comfortably with 61.9% of the vote. More Americans than ever aren’t answering polls, which makes the science much more challenging.

But here’s where the tea leaves are for now, with the grades from FiveThirtyEight.com based on previous polling accuracy. We’ll only include well-rated polls here, and only “registered voters” instead of “likely voters” as new science is leading towards likely voters being a less-reliable predictor.

Trafalgar Group (A-)

McAuliffe 47.1%
Youngkin 49.4%

Washington Post (A+)

McAuliffe 47%
Youngkin 44%

Fox News (A)

McAuliffe 47%
Youngkin 48%