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Virginia Governor’s race down to the wire according to betting markets

The state has gone blue as of late, but markets say this could be the closest statewide race in Old Dominion we’ve seen in years.

By Collin Sherwin

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Democratic gubernatorial candidate, former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe speaks during a get-out-the-vote rally at Ting Pavilion on October 24, 2021 in Charlottesville, Virginia. The Virginia gubernatorial election, pitting McAuliffe against Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin, is November 2. Photo by Eze Amos/Getty Images

The Virginia Governor’s race is heading down to the wire, and with Election Day on Tuesday, November 2nd, many residents of the state have voted already.

And while those tallies aren’t know yet, the polls have seen the race shift from a strong lead for Democrat and former governor Terry McAuliffe to one that should come down to the wire against Republican Glenn Youngkin. The Cook Political Report has the race rated as a toss-up, and most polling firms still have it for McAuliffe, but in the very low-single digits in terms of margin.

Betting on American elections isn’t allowed at licensed sportsbooks, but it is permitted at sites such as PredictIt, a non-profit website with an exemption from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Right now at PredictIt, which trades based on contracts that will be fulfilled for $1 based on the outcome of the election, McAuliffe is at .68 cents to win with Youngkin trailing at .36. They don’t add up to $1 because just like a stock price, there’s a bid-and-ask system in place to balance buyers to sellers.

There are also plenty of alternative markets at PredictIt, such as who will win certain areas of the state. While Youngkin is expected to take Virginia Beach at .66 to .37, the Democrat leads the Republican in Chesapeake .52 to .46. Also you can win $1 for every 24 cents you bet on McAuliffe to outperform the late polls and win with a final margin of 5% or more.

And while most foreign betting markets such as Betfair aren’t open to American-based customers, they are still taking plenty of action on the outcome. The Britain-based site has just shy of $80,000 in handle bet on the VA Governor race already, with $100 on McAuliffe netting you $142 as of now. That number increases for the underdog Youngkin, who would turn a $100 bill into $284 if he was able to pull off the upset.

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