No. 19 BYU vs. Baylor picks and best bets for Week 7

The Cougars and bears meet as a pair of one-loss teams as they begin the second half of the regular season.

By Erik Buchinger Oct 16, 2021, 4:05am PDT

Baylor Bears quarterback Gerry Bohanon (11) passes against the West Virginia Mountaineers during the second half at McLane Stadium.

The No. 19 BYU Cougars dropped from the top 10 after a home loss to the Boise State Broncos ended their give-game winning streak to start the 2021 season. They will head on the road as underdogs against the Baylor Bears, which are off to a 5-1 start in Year 2 under Dave Aranda.

Here’s all the data you’ll want, and a pick for the game!

SP+ Rankings

BYU: 43 overall, 31 offense, 54 defense
Baylor: 23 overall, 53 offense, 15 defense

Injury update

BYU

DB Keenan Ellis - Questionable (neck)
TE Masen Wake - Questionable (undisclosed)
OL James Empey - Questionable (undisclosed)
QB Baylor Romney - Questionable (head)
OL Harris LaChance - Questionable (undisclosed)
DB Jaques Wilson - Questionable (undisclosed)

Baylor

CB Kalon Barnes - Questionable (leg)

ATS/Total

Against The Spread

BYU: 3-3 ATS
Baylor: 4-2 ATS

Total

BYU: Over 1-5
Baylor: Over 4-2

Returning/Overall Talent from 247Sports

BYU: 93 overall, 86 offense, 94 defense
Baylor: 36 overall, 27 offense, 53 defense

Current lines at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Baylor -5
Total: 51
Moneyline: Baylor -225, BYU +185

Opening line: Baylor -5
Opening total: 47.5

Weather

74 degrees, 13 MPH wind, 2% chance of rain

The Pick

BYU +6.5

Both programs rank relatively even in many of the major team statistical categories on both sides of the ball, though the Bears land slightly higher in many of them. With how close the numbers are, we’re going to take the points even though BYU is on the road and we’re not getting a full touchdown. The Cougars turned the ball over four times in their loss to Boise State including three lost fumbles, which is somewhat based on luck. Look for BYU to be ready coming off a loss and cover the 6.5 points as the road dog.

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