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The 2021-22 NBA season is almost here, which means fantasy basketball and DFS competitions are back in full swing. The point guard position is loaded in the NBA, which usually means plenty of options and flexibility for fantasy managers. There are several intriguing prospects to break out in this year’s field, while there are some obvious regression candidates. Here’s a look at two point guard sleepers and two “busts”, in relation to their ESPN ADP. A sleeper is someone expected to outperform his ADP while a bust is expected to produce below his ADP.
Point guard sleepers
Kyle Lowry, Miami Heat
ESPN ADP: 67.7
Lowry is currently being rated among the likes of Terry Rozier, Cade Cunningham and Collin Sexton. Even at 35, Lowry is a significantly better player than those guys and more importantly is playing on a contending team. The point guard is going to be surrounded by strong offensive weapons and should elevate this Heat team. He’s going to outperform this ADP by a decent amount.
Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers (for now)
Note — Simmons is in Philadelphia and plans to return to the team soon, per reports.
ESPN ADP: 40.4
It’s easy to see why Simmons has a low ADP relative to his production. If he stays in Philadelphia, he’s not going to be on the court. The Sixers ultimately want to get a deal done, and a motivated Simmons is great for fantasy managers. There could be some early tension with drafting Simmons if he decides to sit out games but he’s a force when he plays.
Point guard busts
LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets
ESPN ADP: 25.6
Ball is coming off a fantastic Rookie of the Year campaign where he led the Hornets to the play-in tournament. That being said, his ADP is quite high. The Hornets still have Terry Rozier and drafted James Bouknight, so the backcourt is going to be crowded. Miles Bridges is bound to take a leap as a playmaker at some point, or least try to do so. Ball is going to put up numbers, but he’s unlikely to deliver at this level.
Kyrie Irving, Brooklyn Nets
ESPN ADP: 33.3
Note — Irving won’t play or practice with the Nets until he can be a full participant in team activities.
Vaccination mandates aside, Irving is going to see his production drop somewhat with Kevin Durant and James Harden likely to command most of the ball this year. There’s always the potential of Irving refusing to comply with New York’s vaccine mandate, which would obviously tank his value further. If he eventually does decide to take the shot, Irving’s usage is still going to go down this season. He’s not the best off-ball player, so his fantasy value relies entirely on him having the ball. And he’s playing alongside two superior isolation scorers, so guess who misses out on touches most of the time?