clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Bettors believe Donald Trump will be impeached

The actions since the invasion of Capitol Hill and the Electoral College on Tuesday have sent political betting markets wild

If you buy something from an SB Nation link, Vox Media may earn a commission. See our ethics statement.

President Donald J. Trump speaks. At the Reading Regional Airport in Bern Township, PA Saturday afternoon October 31, 2020 where United States President Donald J. Trump spoke during a campaign rally for his bid for reelection. Photo by Ben Hasty/MediaNews Group/Reading Eagle via Getty Images

The betting on what will happen in Washington D.C. these next two weeks before the inauguration of Joe Biden as President has ramped up massively in the past two days due to the insurrection on Capitol Hill. Both Speaker of The House Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer have called for President Donald Trump to either be impeached again, or removed from office by the 25th Amendment.

For now, Schumer leads the minority party in the Senate, but that will change on January 20th as Vice President-elect Kamala Harris casts the final vote in the Senate to give him the majority leader position. Both David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler have conceded their Senate races in Georgia, so the chamber will be split 50-50 for the upcoming term, which means Harris will likely spend plenty of sessions in the chamber breaking ties.

And the whirlwind of activity has put political bettors into plenty of activity. At PredictIt, which is available to American bettors for up to $850 per market thanks to an exemption in the law that allows for trading. All PredictIt prices are traded in pennies, with those holding winning contracts given a full $1.00 if they have the right answer to a yes-or-no question when resolved.

Shares related to the question of the President being in office on the morning of January 20th have soared in volume traded while the price plummets.

Will Donald Trump be impeached again before the end of his term?

Yes: .82
No: .18

This market has moved .10 towards “Yes” today, and was just created about 24 hours ago.

But the thought of Trump being actually removed from office, and banned from holding federal office ever again, is a bit more skeptical. While the House just needs a majority to impeach, the Senate needs two-thirds of members to vote to convict.

Will the Senate convict Donald Trump on impeachment in his first term?

Yes: .11
No: .89

Will Donald Trump complete his first term?

Yes: .79
No: .21

The price for Trump to complete his first term has hovered between the mid-80s and low 90’s the past 90 days, but is down .75 right now. Most days this market has had under 50,000 shares traded in volume, but that soared to 812,000 shares moved on Wednesday, and 689,700 traded on Thursday.

PredictIt also believes Trump will attempt to pardon himself before leaving office:

Will Trump pardon himself in his first term?

Yes: .56
No: .44

The shares in this market have flown, with over 333,000 being traded yesterday. That’s more than double any other day since the market was created.

But there’s less belief that Trump will pardon his personal attorney Rudy Giuliani.

Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani before end of 2020?

Yes: .03
No: .97

At Ladbrokes, a sportsbook not available in the USA but is throughout most of the rest of the world, there are several markets with an interest in US Politics.

Will Trump issue a self-pardon?

Yes -120
No -120

Trump to complete full term as President?

Yes -800
No +450

The “complete full term” question is at the same odds at most other markets right now, meaning bettors don’t think the 25th Amendment will be invoked or that Congress will be able to

And Betfair in London also made a bit of a cheeky wager available — something you wouldn’t ever get by regulators in most US markets. Here are the odds for what Donald Trump will be doing when Joe Biden is inaugurated, as the current President has tweeted he won’t be in attendance:

What will Trump be doing during the Inauguration Day ceremony?

Playing golf -200
Tanning +600
Speaking with Kim Jong-un on the phone +2500
On plane to Russia +5000
Measuring his hands +10000

Many foreign bookmakers do this more to attract publicity and attention than to make a profit, and it seems to be working because we just wrote about it.