Week 12 saw the prequel to the Super Bowl as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs took each other on in Florida. The Chiefs came out on top 27-24, but the score doesn’t really show how the Chiefs dominated the game.
Tom Brady did make it close in the end, but there was never much doubt as to the outcome. When you watch how the win probability stays heavily on the Chiefs side despite the Buccaneers late scores.
Win Probability: Chiefs @ Buccaneers #NFLWinProb pic.twitter.com/IVXOQulAbc
— Lee Sharpe, ⛓️ @ (@LeeSharpeNFL) November 30, 2020
Brady and the Buccaneers were forced to punt on their first four possessions and had just one first down as they went 44 yards on 14 plays. On the other hand, the Chiefs first four possessions went for two touchdowns, a field goal and a punt, as they went for 248 yards on just 19 plays.
Both of those early touchdowns were big plays to Tyreek Hill, as Patrick Mahomes hit him for 75 and 40-yard touchdowns. Mahomes then hit Hill once again for a 20-yard touchdown on their first drive following half-time to make it a 27-10 game.
Following that third Mahomes to Hill touchdown, the Buccaneers next two possessions ended in Brady interceptions. You can guess how the game looked at this point with Brady coming off two interceptions and down 27-10.
Brady did have one touchdown drive in the second quarter that started after Mahomes fumbled at the Buccaneers eight-yard line after being sacked by Shaq Barrett. The Chiefs had gone 65-yards on 12 plays and were at 1st and Goal when Mahomes had one of his two lost fumbles on the season. Just another point in how well the Chiefs offense had been playing.
Finally, as the Chiefs apparently let off the gas, Brady got things going. At this point, it felt like garbage time, as the Bucs were down three scores in the fourth quarter. But Brady made the most out of that garbage time, as he threw two touchdowns, both to Mike Evans to make the score a much more respectable 27-24.
But when called upon to hold off the Bucs, Mahomes was able to hold onto the ball for four minutes to finish off the game. There was never a time where it felt like the Chiefs would lose this game, but Brady and company did make it close.
Final statistics
Patrick Mahomes:
37/49 (75.5%), 462 yards, 3 TD, 9.4 YPA, 2 Sacks — Rush, 4/28 yards — 91.2 QBR
Tom Brady:
27/41 (65.8%), 345 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT, 8.4 YPA, 1 sack — 61.4 QBR
Would Mahomes have even put up bigger numbers if the Bucs would have been in the lead? It is very possible. Brady, on the other hand, likely hit his upside for fantasy, as he was forced to throw until the bitter end.
Probably the biggest difference in personnel this time around will be the absence of left tackle Eric Fisher and there is no way that isn’t going to hurt the Chiefs. We saw how Barrett got to Mahomes and caused a fumble in this game and he should have a much easier time with Fisher gone.
In the end, Mahomes was the better quarterback in this game and if Carlton Davis can’t keep tabs on Hill this time around, we could see another huge passing game from Mahomes.