The Buffalo Bills will travel to face the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship game on Sunday. We’ll take an in-depth look at the slew of prop bets on the table at DraftKings Sportsbook for Diggs’ receptions, yardage and touchdowns below.
Receiving yards prop: O/U 94.5 (-112)
Diggs is averaging 98.2 yards per game through 16 games of the regular season and two playoff contests so far. He’s been in triple digits in both of the Bills’ postseason games: 128 against the Colts and 106 against the Ravens. The thing to know here is that in nine games this season, he’s been below that number, which really drives home the point that when Diggs has a good game he really blows up.
It’s not without some risk, but the Bills, underdogs in this one, figure to be throwing the ball even more than they already do. I feel pretty safe about this one.
Receptions prop: O 7.5 (+108), U (-134)
Through 16 regular season and two playoff games, Diggs is averaging 7.8 receptions per game. He’s had eight receptions or more in 10 games this season, including the playoffs. He had eight catches last week against Baltimore, but just six against Indianapolis the week before that. Over his last seven games, Diggs has had eight or more receptions five times.
I know the Chiefs are going to have to pay extra attention to Diggs this week, but there’s just no avoiding him for Buffalo QB Josh Allen. Besides, Diggs is one of the few receivers who are relatively matchup proof. This also goes back to that part above about the Bills being underdogs on the road here and needing throw the ball.
Player to have the most receiving yards: Travis Kelce (+100) or Stefon Diggs (-124)
Kelce is averaging almost as many yards per game as Diggs, 97.8 to 98.2, numbers that reflect just how important they both are their offense. Kelce had 109 yards last week against the Browns.
Pick: Travis Kelce
I’m going with Kelce here because the Bills are one of the worst teams in the NFL when it comes to defending opposing tight ends. Jack Doyle of the Colts had 70 yards and a touchdown against them in the Wild Card round.
Touchdown props: Anytime (+115), First/Last (+850), 2 or more TDs (+550), 3 or more TDs (+3000)
Diggs only had eight touchdowns during the regular season, but he has scored in both of Buffalo’s playoff games. He had three in a game once this season—against the Patriots in Week 16—but that was his only multi-touchdown outing of the year.
He moves the ball and makes chunk plays, but he just doesn’t score enough—and the Chiefs will have to focus on him anyway—to justify betting on him to score more than once. But given how much the Bills are likely to throw and Diggs’ place in that offense, a wager on him to score once isn’t a bad bet at all.
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