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There is a loaded NBA slate on Friday, January 22nd. We’ve got 11 games on tap and two were postponed — the Washington Wizards vs. the Milwaukee Bucks and the Memphis Grizzlies vs. the Portland Trail Blazers. So originally, the NBA schedule almost every team to be in action to close out the fifth week of the 2020-21 season.
There’s already some big news in the Brooklyn Nets-Cleveland Cavaliers game that will impact how the money goes. Kevin Durant (Achilles surgery management) is not going to play vs. the Cavs. He played 50 minutes in the 2OT loss to the Cavaliers on Wednesday. So with Durant out, we should see the lines change for Nets-Cavs.
Other than that, there are a few players we’re monitoring, including Pascal Siakam (groin) for the Toronto Raptors and Michael Porter Jr. (conditioning) for the Denver Nuggets. Siakam could sit out against the Miami Heat. Porter could return for the Nuggets in a game against the Phoenix Suns. Lets’ take a look at some betting splits from DraftKings Sportsbook and see where the money is going early on.
Spread analysis
It’s interesting that the early movement on the spread in Raptors-Heat is toward Toronto at -2.5 to cover at 63 percent of the bets and 84 percent of the handle. If Siakam is out, the Raptors don’t have any depth in the front court to handle Bam Adebayo and Kelly Olynyk. A tight rotation may not be that bad, but you’d still have to favor the Heat slightly getting points in a game in Florida.
The Indiana Pacers are getting a lot of love at 89 percent of the handle and 84 percent of the bets at -4.5 against the Orlando Magic at home. Indiana may get Myles Turner back in the lineup and the Magic are reeling, losing 6 of their past 7 games. The Pacers have lost back-to-back games but it was against two playoff teams out West — the Mavericks and Clippers. Orlando should be much easier to deal with.
Over/Under analysis
There are two games that we see pretty extreme splits. The Chicago Bulls vs. the Charlotte Hornets should be a track meet. So 93 percent of the handle is on the over at 227 points. The thing is the bets are almost at a split with the under being the slight favorite at 51 percent of the bets. It’s a pretty high number, and while both teams play up in pace and play little defense, is there enough talent to get there?
The other extreme split is on the under in Detroit Pistons vs. Houston Rockets. Christian Wood has already been ruled out for the Rockets. There’s no John Wall, either. So the thinking is the lack of talent in this game will lead to very little offense. From those splits the number is 217. The live number on that game is already down to 214.5. So we could start to see some more money come in on the over, which is getting a higher percentage of the bets at 217 anyway.
Moneyline analysis
The only game I want to go over is the biggest underdog on the slate — the Oklahoma City Thunder on the road vs. the Los Angeles Clippers. The Thunder are +700 on the ML from these splits and that number is up to +800. This is an NBA game, not a college game. The chances of the Thunder pulling off an upset are pretty slim. Can it happen? Sure. We saw last season the Golden State Warriors were massive underdogs in a game early on in the season without Klay Thompson, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and D’Angelo Russell. This was against the Portland Trail Blazers and the Dubs ended up winning by 9 points at home.
OKC is on the road and the Clippers are last season’s Blazers, but it’s still such an insane number that considering it on the ML for an NBA game isn’t the craziest thing in the world. I’m not saying throw the bank on OKC ML and pray you win the lottery. All I’m saying is the Thunder have surprised some teams this season and aren’t nearly as bad as this line is making them out to be.
NBA Betting Splits, Jan. 22
| Teams | Point Spread | % Handle | % Bets | Total Points | % Handle | % Bets | Moneyline | % Handle | % Bets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams | Point Spread | % Handle | % Bets | Total Points | % Handle | % Bets | Moneyline | % Handle | % Bets |
| CHI Bulls | 3 | 81% | 75% | Over 227.0 | 93% | 49% | +123 | 71% | 49% |
| CHA Hornets | -3 | 19% | 25% | Under 227.0 | 7% | 51% | -143 | 29% | 51% |
| HOU Rockets | 3.5 | 78% | 65% | Over 217.0 | 2% | 52% | +130 | 63% | 49% |
| DET Pistons | -3.5 | 22% | 35% | Under 217.0 | 98% | 48% | -155 | 37% | 51% |
| ORL Magic | 4.5 | 11% | 16% | Over 217.5 | 33% | 72% | +148 | 7% | 22% |
| IND Pacers | -4.5 | 89% | 84% | Under 217.5 | 67% | 28% | -180 | 93% | 78% |
| BOS Celtics | 4.5 | 54% | 68% | Over 222.5 | 40% | 75% | +148 | 42% | 39% |
| PHI 76ers | -4.5 | 46% | 32% | Under 222.5 | 60% | 25% | -180 | 58% | 61% |
| BKN Nets | -8.5 | 78% | 78% | Over 225.5 | 22% | 61% | -375 | 79% | 94% |
| CLE Cavaliers | 8.5 | 22% | 22% | Under 225.5 | 78% | 39% | +295 | 21% | 6% |
| MIA Heat | 2.5 | 16% | 37% | Over 220.5 | 31% | 51% | +114 | 54% | 60% |
| TOR Raptors | -2.5 | 84% | 63% | Under 220.5 | 69% | 49% | -136 | 46% | 40% |
| ATL Hawks | -6 | 79% | 84% | Over 223.5 | 58% | 35% | -230 | 87% | 87% |
| MIN Timberwolves | 6 | 21% | 16% | Under 223.5 | 42% | 65% | +186 | 13% | 13% |
| DAL Mavericks | -2.5 | 31% | 79% | Over 222.5 | 36% | 55% | -139 | 77% | 78% |
| SA Spurs | 2.5 | 69% | 21% | Under 222.5 | 64% | 45% | +117 | 23% | 22% |
| DEN Nuggets | 1 | 55% | 62% | Over 219.0 | 74% | 84% | -106 | 70% | 64% |
| PHO Suns | -1 | 45% | 38% | Under 219.0 | 26% | 16% | -114 | 30% | 36% |
| NY Knicks | 4 | 36% | 76% | Over 219.0 | 45% | 54% | +143 | 69% | 60% |
| SAC Kings | -4 | 64% | 24% | Under 219.0 | 55% | 46% | -175 | 31% | 40% |
| OKC Thunder | 13 | 30% | 65% | Over 220.0 | 21% | 17% | +700 | 36% | 12% |
| LA Clippers | -13 | 70% | 35% | Under 220.0 | 79% | 83% | -1115 | 64% | 88% |
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