clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Best prop bets and analysis for Travis Kelce in the AFC Championship

We breakdown the AFC Championship game prop bets for Chiefs TE Travis Kelce.

Who is the best option at Tight End this weekend?

Travis Kelce and the Chiefs will host the Bills Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium as they face off in the AFC Championship. While there are still questions about who will be under center for Kansas City this weekend, there plenty of prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook to mull over. We’ll take an in-depth look at his props for receptions, yardage and touchdowns for Kelce below, who is bound to be a focal point of the offense regardless of who is under center.

Receiving yards prop: O 94.5 (-118), U 94.5 (-106)

The veteran tight end has gone over the 94.5 receiving yard mark in seven games this season. In Kansas City’s first meeting against the Bills in Week 6, Kelce only had 65 yards and two touchdowns.

Pick: Under

In both playoff games thus far, opposing tight ends have had a semblance of success against the Bills’ defense. Colts tight end Jack Doyle had seven receptions for 70 yards and a touchdown, while Mark Andrews had four receptions for 28 yards. Furthermore, the Bills have not allowed an opposing tight end to reach 90 yards since Week 2 (Mike Gesecki - 134 yards). That being said, we should still see Kelce featured often in the Chiefs’ offense.

Receptions prop: O 7.5 (-106), U 7.5 (-118)

In 16 games played this season, Kelce has gone over 7.5 receptions, 10 times. In the Chiefs’ last three games, the star tight end is coincidentally averaging 7.6 receptions per game.

The Bills allowed three tight ends to top 7.5 receptions this season — Mike Gesicki, Darren Waller and Noah Fant. And that is actually on the higher side, as the Bills gave the most receptions to tight ends in the league. .

Pick: Over

If the Bills’ defense first priority is to take away the big play from Tyreek Hill and everything over the top, then that should open up things for Travis Kelce in the middle of the field. Last week, he posted eight receptions (11 targets) for 109 yards and a touchdown. In the Chiefs’ last seven games, Kelce has caught eight receptions in six games.

Touchdown props, Anytime: +115, First/Last +850, 2 or more TDs (+350), 3 or more TDs (+1600)

Kelce has a caught touchdown in the Chiefs’ last five games and 11 touchdowns overall this season. Meanwhile, the Bills’ defense has allowed nine touchdowns this season to opposing tight ends.

Pick: Anytime

The Bills’ defense has played pretty well of late in not letting opposing teams’ tight ends beat them for touchdowns. In their last four games, Buffalo has only allowed one touchdown to a tight end, which happened during Super Wild Card weekend against the Colts. However, Kelce had success against the Bills’ LBs earlier this season, scoring two touchdowns.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/MI/PA/WV), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA) or Call or Text the TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789. 21+ (18+ NH). NJ/PA/WV/IA/IN/CO/IL/TN/MI only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See for full terms and conditions.