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Best prop bets and analysis for Davante Adams in the NFC Championship

We breakdown the NFC Championship game prop bets for Packers WR Davante Adams

Davante Adams #17 of the Green Bay Packers is defended by Troy Hill #22 of the Los Angeles Rams during the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Lambeau Field on January 16, 2021 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers defeated the Rams 32-18. Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images

Davante Adams and the Green Bay Packers host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Championship game on Sunday at Lambeau Field. Adams has a slew of prop bets to consider for this matchup over at DraftKings Sporstbook. We’ll take an in-depth look at his props for receptions, yardage and touchdowns below.

In considering the rate at which Adams reached the various numbers below, remember that he played in 14 games with 40 or more snaps, including playoffs.

Receptions prop: 7.5

Adams caught eight or more passes in seven games and caught seven or fewer in seven for 50 percent.

Tampa Bay allowed 11 wide receivers to top 7.5 receptions in a game.

Pick: OVER

Like his stats show us, this really is a 50/50 proposition. In their playoff game against a better Rams defense last week, Adams caught nine of ten targets for 66 yards. When these teams met in Week 6, he caught six of ten targets for 61 yards. I think we can throw out that Week 6 game, as it was very much an outlier. And we can feel confident that Adams will see double-digit targets once again and with a good Buccaneers offense on the other side, Aaron Rodgers will likely need to throw to win this game.

Receiving yards prop: 87.5

Adams went for 87.5 or more receiving yards in seven games and had fewer than 87.5 in seven for 50 percent.

Tampa Bay allowed 10 wide receivers to top 87.5 yards in a game this season.

Pick: OVER

This one is tougher than receptions, as we can project a huge target number for Adams, but that doesn’t mean the yards will be there, as we saw last week against the Rams. I do believe that the importance and offensive firepower for Tampa Bay push the Rodgers-Adams connection as high as it can go this Sunday though, so I’ll take the over.

Touchdown prop: Anytime: -182, First/Last +525, 2 or more TDs +225, 3 or more TDs +900

Adams caught a touchdown in 12 of his 14 games. He caught two or more touchdowns in five of 14 and three or more in two of 14.

Tampa Bay allowed 15 wide receivers to score a touchdown this season. Only one, Tyreek Hill, scored more than one and he had three.

Picks: If Adams scores an anytime touchdown, you’ll get back 55 cents on the dollar. That’s not awful for a receiver who caught a touchdown in 85.7 percent of his games. His odds of catching two or more touchdowns take a big hit, while the payout of course goes up. He’s done it 35.7 percent of the time this season and you get a $2.25 return on each dollar you bet. It’s not an awful wager, but I’d probably lean toward the +525 odds of first/last touchdown if we’re looking for a higher risk/reward bet with the dependable Adams.

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