The Kansas City Chiefs trounced the Buffalo Bills during the regular season and now the reigning champs will have to take them down again in the AFC Championship. Kansas City could be in for a real test, as its best player’s status for Sunday is up in the air.
Patrick Mahomes had an easy time picking apart the Cleveland Browns in the Divisional Round but suffered a toe injury early in the game before getting a concussion in the third quarter and being ruled out for the remainder of the game. He’s listed as questionable for Sunday. Chad Henne was enough to hold off the Browns, but can he make enough use of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to stay ahead of the Bills for an entire game?
Buffalo’s offense wasn’t nearly as explosive as usual against the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round but the Josh Allen-Stefon Diggs battery was effective and combined for over 100 yards with one touchdown. The Bills got a break when Lamar Jackson had to leave their last game with a head injury and could get another if Mahomes doesn't return to action. They still have to get the best of a defense that held them to just 17 points during the regular season though.
TV Info
Date: Sunday, Jan. 24
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS
Notable Statistical rankings (Football Outsiders)
Bills: #4 Overall — #5 offense, #12 defense, #4 special teams
Chiefs: #6 Overall — #2 offense, #22 defense, #17 special teams
DraftKings Sportsbook odds
Bills: +3, +130
Chiefs: -3, -148
Total: 53.5
Fantasy football start/sit advice
Bills
Josh Allen, Quarterback, $6,900
Allen was held under 20 DKFP for the first time since Week 14 in his last outing but remains Buffalo’s most lethal fantasy option. He’s cheaper than Mahomes but has an identical DKFP average. I don't expect one of the most dominant quarterbacks in football to have a second below-average game and his rushing upside can offset a poor throwing game.
Stefon Diggs, Wide Receiver, $$7,000
Buffalo’s lack of a ground game makes Diggs even more important. Allen’s favorite target has eclipsed 100 receiving yards in five of his last six games and scored 16.6 DKFP on an off night against the Chiefs earlier this season. He’ll continue to be Kansas City’s go-to guy for big plays and has all the momentum in the world.
Chiefs
Travis Kelce, Tight End, $8,000
Kelce is extremely pricey for a tight end but it’s warranted. He’s gone over 22 DKFP in five straight games and has been targeted more times (58) than any other Chief during that stretch. He’s a premium red zone targets and has scored a touchdown in five straight games. Facing a defense that ranks 29th against opposing tight ends on DraftKings will only boost his value.
Tyreek Hill, Wide Receiver, $7,200
There’s no telling what Mahomes will look like on Sunday, but both his favorite targets still have tremendous upside. Hill is a little more streaky than Kelce but his YAC potential helps him make up for quarterback weaknesses. The Chiefs have gadget plays to hand the ball off to Hill so he can use his speed on the edge. Don’t worry about his touches.