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How the public is betting the Bills vs. Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game

We break down the betting splits for Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship in the 2021 NFL Playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass as tight end Nick Keizer (48) blocks Buffalo Bills defensive end A.J. Epenesa (57) in the third quarter at Bills Stadium. Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

The Buffalo Bills will head to Arrowhead Stadium to face off against the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship game Sunday at 6:40 p.m. ET. This game is a rematch from earlier in the season, where the Chiefs defeated the Bills 26-17 in October.

Last week, the No. 2-seed Buffalo Bills defeated the No. 5-seed Baltimore Ravens 17-3 in the AFC Divisional round. Bills quarterback Josh Allen completed 23-of-37 passes for 206 yards and a touchdown. Allen’s lone touchdown pass went to start wide receiver Stefon Diggs, which were a part of his eight receptions for 106 yards. Bills cornerback Taron Johnson had the other touchdown as he intercepted Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson inside the end zone and returned it for a score.

The No. 1-seed Kansas City Chiefs defeated the No. 6-seed Cleveland Browns 22-17 last Sunday. The Chiefs got the win, despite not having superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes under center who left the game with a concussion. Without Mahomes, the Chiefs turned to veteran quarterback Chad Henne, who threw an interception, but also made a couple of key plays down the stretch. Mahomes returned to practice on Wednesday, which is a good sign for him to play on Sunday evening.

So where are sports bettors going as we get closer to game time? Let’s take a look. All odds and info were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.

Point Spread

Kansas City is favored by three points heading into the AFC title game. The Chiefs are receiving 41% of the bets and 51% of the handle.

Is the public right?

Despite the Chiefs being favored, there’s a lot of money and action on the underdog Buffalo Bills. In their last nine games, the Chiefs have not fared well against the spread with a record of 0-8-1. Meanwhile, the Bills have been stellar ATS with a record of 9-1 in their last 10 games this season. Buffalo’s lone ATS loss happened in the wild card round as the Colts keep the deficit within seven points. The public is right to lean toward the underdog Bills.


The point total for this Sunday evening contest is set at 53.5. As of now, 53% of the bets are siding with the under along with 48% of the handle.

Is the public right?

With the Bills not having much threat of a running game, it makes their offense one-dimensional but still scary on Sunday evening. The Chiefs might be getting back rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, which should help out the offense. The last time these two teams played each other in October, the total score was 43 points.

The weather might’ve played a role in that result, but looking at these two teams, the under could be in play again. Both defenses rarely get beat for a big play through the air and are tough to move the ball on in certain areas of the football. I’d stick with the under for right now.


The Chiefs have moneyline odds of -157, with the Bills’ odds coming in at +138. Out of all the moneyline bets placed, Buffalo is seeing 69% of the bets and 65% of the handle.

Is the public right?

Just like with the spread, it is not surprised to see people put their eggs into the Bills’ basket for Sunday’s game. However, I don’t think the public is right here. The Bills did not play well on offense last week and completely neglected their running game. They cannot play one-dimensional against the Chiefs’ defense because that plays right into their hands. On the other end of the spectrum, Kansas City should have Patrick Mahomes back under center and hopefully Edwards-Helaire. If Mahomes is 100% he should not have problems finding his receivers and leading the Chiefs back to the Super Bowl.

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