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Public betting splits and line movement for the Fiesta Bowl: Oregon vs. Iowa State

We break down the public betting splits and how the lines have moved for Oregon and Iowa State in the Fiesta Bowl.

Breece Hall #28 of the Iowa State Cyclones celebrates with Brock Purdy #15 of the Iowa State Cyclones after scoring a touchdown against the Oklahoma Sooners in the second half of the 2020 Dr Pepper Big 12 Championship football game at AT&T Stadium on December 19, 2020 in Arlington, Texas. Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images

The Oregon Ducks found their way to a New Year’s Six bowl in the most 2020 - I guess 2021 now - way possible, and they will meet up with the Iowa State Cyclones in the Fiesta Bowl. Oregon finished the Pac-12 regular season with a 3-2 record but was bumped into the title game when the Washington Huskies dropped out. After a win over the USC Trojans, the 4-2 Ducks that didn’t win their own division is in the New Year’s Six. As for Iowa State, it finished the season 8-3 and fell short against Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship.

In a pretty exciting turn of events with the way bowl season has been trending the last few years especially this season, there are no reported opt outs heading into this game, so everyone should be at full strength.

The game will get started on Saturday, Jan. 2 at 4 p.m. ET from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

So where are sports bettors going as we get closer to game time? Let’s take a look. All odds and info were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.

Point Spread

As we get closer to kickoff, Iowa State checks in as six-point favorites, and that’s where the majority of bettors are placing their wagers. Of all the bets placed on the spread, 73% of them are going to the side of the Cyclones including 85% of the handle.

Is the public right? No. I’m going to side with the Ducks here especially if it trickles up to the seven, which probably is wishful thinking. These two teams are very well coached and the fact that nobody has opted out makes me think we’re going to get a good effort from both sides. Is Iowa State that much better than Oregon? I don’t think so, so let’s go take the points.


The point total for this one is at 58, and of course the public is in on the over because that’s what the public does. The over is getting 72% of the bets as well as 70% of the handle.

Is the public right? Again, I’m going against the public. Both teams are stronger on offense than they are on defense, but it’s not like either team is awful on the defensive side of the ball. I’m not convinced we’ll see a high-level score-for-score performance from quarterbacks Tyler Shough and Brock Purdy.


Iowa State comes in as the favorite with -220 odds to win the game outright, while Oregon is at +175. Iowa State is getting 63% of the bets with 74% of the handle also going to the Cyclones.

Is the public right? Yes, it’s more likely than no that Iowa State will win, but I’m not too excited about those odds in what will be a closer game than the six-point spread. If I had to take a side, Oregon is the way I’d go.

Fiesta Bowl: Oregon vs. Iowa State

Opening line: Iowa State -4
Current line: Iowa State -6

The public loves betting favorites, but this was still a little surprising. Oregon has been competing at this high of a level much more than Iowa State has in recent seasons, but the newness of the Cyclones could be enticing bettors. Or maybe bettors just don’t think Oregon deserves to be here so they’re fading the Ducks. Regardless, this line movement is good news for Oregon bettors who waited on it.

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