Top fades, value plays for Heat vs. Lakers Game 1 NBA Showdown

The Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat will give us the last bit of basketball of the season in the 2020 NBA Finals, which begins on Wednesday at 9:00 p.m. ET. The Lakers are heavy favorites to win the series and are favored by 5 points in Game 1. The O/U has been set at 217.5 and hasn’t seen any movement as of this writing. Let’s take a look at some players to fade and some value options for the DraftKings Showdown contest for Game 1.

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Players to Fade

Tyler Herro ($8,000)

This is the second time I feel like I’ve been punched in the gut writing about Herro and the series hasn’t even started. My worry is that the Lakers will do a good job defending Herro and he just won’t get the volume or ceiling we’re looking for at this price. Herro’s done a decent job picking up peripheral stats, but his big-time value lies in scoring 20+ points. I just don’t know if he gets over that number, let alone his points line of 15.5, in this game. So early in the series, at this price, I’m going to look elsewhere.

Duncan Robinson ($6,800)

Unless the Heat catch fire and come out the gate making it rain, I also don’t see much reason to play Robinson at this price. If this is going to be a Lakers blowout, which is totally could be, I wouldn’t expect much from Robinson. He’s another shooter who usually doesn’t come out firing in these playoff series. This is also the biggest game of his life (and Herro’s for that matter). So starting off, I want to see Herro and Robinson show up before rolling them out in Showdown.

Value Picks

Jae Crowder ($6,200)

I trust Crowder a lot more than both Robinson and Herro. Crowder can get just as hot from outside (albeit it doesn’t happen as often). We saw through the first two rounds what Crowder can do if shots start falling. We know Crowder is going to have to play big minutes guarding guys like LeBron James and Anthony Davis at times. I think Crowder is athletic enough to force AD out of the paint and guard him on the perimeter, which I’d hope gives Crowder a bit of an advantage. Really, the price being down on Crowder is what stands out.

Kyle Kuzma ($3,800)

Kuzma still isn’t playing a ton but it’s also a new series, you never know. If Kuzma is going to see around 20 minutes or so, at this price, he’s worth a lineup slot. You’ll want to spend way down to try and fit in LeBron, Jimmy Butler, AD and Bam Adebayo. I know Kuzma hasn’t shown it at all these playoffs, but he’s capable of scoring in spurts. Maybe being in his first NBA Finals will bring out the best in his game, you never know. Regardless of that, he’s a low-risk play at this price after being well over $5K for most of the postseason.