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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Cerrone vs. Price at UFC Vegas 11

We break down the last-minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Donald Cerrone vs. Niko Price at UFC Vegas 11 on ESPN+.

Donald Cerrone and Niko Price face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in at UFC APEX on September 18, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Donald Cerrone and Niko Price will serve as the co-main event for UFC Vegas 11 this Saturday, September 19th, live in Las Vegas at the UFC Apex and on ESPN+. This will be a welterweight bout.

“Cowboy” Cerrone is one of the more well-known fighters in UFC, entering this bout with a 36-15 record. He’s riding a four-fight losing streak against fighters like #3 Tony Ferguson, #4 Conor McGregor and #14 Anthony Pettis, with the latter two having been in 2020. He averages 4.33 significant strikes per minute and 1.23 takedowns per three rounds, and his striking accuracy is 46 percent with takedown accuracy of 35 percent. What makes Cerrone a tough opponent is he has a 53 percent strike defense and 73 percent takedown defense.

Price enters the fight with a 14-4 record. He doesn’t have too many elite victories, losing to #10 Vicente Luque and #12 Geoff Neal in two of his last three matches. Landing 4.32 significant strikes per minute, “The Hybrid” is a much more confident boxer than grappler, averaging just 1.08 takedowns per 15 minutes with a mere 23 percent accuracy. At 30-years-old, Price will be the favorite as the younger, more spry contender.

Betting splits

Here are the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Donald Cerrone vs. Niko Price at UFC Vegas 11 on September 19th:

Donald Cerrone: +125 (59% of action, 48% of bets)
Niko Price: -155 (41% of action, 52% of bets)

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Donald Cerrone: $7,700
Niko Price: $8,500

Both fighters average 76.1 DFS points per bout, and have big enough sample sizes where that’s indicative. But Price’s lack of showing against good competition, and Cerrone’s four-fight losing streak are two bad signs for both. You might want to find value somewhere else on this card.

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