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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Clark vs. Alpar at UFC Vegas 11

We break down the last-minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Sarah Alpar at UFC Vegas 11 on ESPN+.

Opponents Jessica-Rose Clark and Sarah Alpar face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in at UFC APEX on September 18, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Jessica-Rose Clark and Sarah Alpar are the first women on the preliminary card in a bantamweight bout at UFC Vegas 11, live in Las Vegas Saturday night UFC Apex and on ESPN+.

Jessica-Rose “Jessy Jess” Clark and her colorful hair enter with a 9-6 record. Five of those victories have come from decisions while all six of her losses have come via decision. A competent striker, she fires 4.53 significant strikes per minutes with 47 percent accuracy. She has lost her last two bouts to Pannie Kianzad and Jessica Eye via unanimous decision.

Clark’s opponent, Sarah “Too Sweet” Alpar, will compete in her first bout of the year and on the UFC main roster. Something to note about Alpar is that she’s fought just once annually over the past four years, and this will be her first fight of 2020. The southpaw-stance fighter does her best work on the ground, converting 66 percent of her 3.79 takedowns per 15 minutes in her scored fights.

Those takedowns haven’t necessarily translated to wins though as she has just two submissions in 13 bouts, but is 9-4 in her MMA career.

Betting splits

Here are the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Sarah Alpar at UFC Vegas 11 on September 19th:

Jessica-Rose Clark: -230 (78% of action, 63% of bets)
Sarah Alpar: +180 (22% of action, 37% of bets)

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Jessica-Rose Clark: $8,900
Sarah Alpar: $7,300

Clark should get back on the winning track here, but her lack of activity and finishing power is the issue. She averaged 95 DFS points in her two wins, but that might not have enough value considering her salary. This is a close call, but against an active opponent we lean Clark as a possible but not necessary selection.

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