Why I like the Titans against the spread on MNF

The Tennessee Titans made a surprising run to and into the playoffs last season, beating the Patriots and Ravens only to lose to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. The Broncos didn’t do that. Instead, they went 6-10 and didn’t make the playoffs. But, after a strong finish under Drew Lock, the hopes have been raised in Denver.

The Titans should actually thank the Broncos for their surprising 2019. Their loss in Denver last season was the catalyst to push Ryan Tannehill into the starting lineup over Marcus Mariota and on into the AFC Championship game.

The Titans are road favorites in this game, as they are favored by 3-points at DraftKings Sportsbook.

ATS Pick: Titans

The Broncos have the elevation advantage and I could see it helping them this week, but the Titans are a team that can wear down a defense with Derrick Henry and their stout defense. The Broncos are also hurting, as Courtland Sutton is a game-time decision and rookie KJ Hamler is questionable with a hamstring injury.

The Broncos defense also took a hit when Von Miller’s season likely ended with a dislocated peroneal tendon in training camp. Getting to Tannehill to disrupt their efficient offense is going to be tough. The team also lost CB Chris Harris in free agency. A.J. Bouye was a good get, but he’s not Harris.

The Titans No. 1 receiver, A.J. Brown, put up big numbers last season, but it took him a while to become a full time starter and reports out of camp have been glowing. If he is going to take a big step forward, secondaries are gong to have their hands full.

The Broncos will likely be all in on the run with Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay with Sutton and Hamler hurting. The Titans were a strong run defense last season and if Sutton and Hamler can’t go, they should be able to spend more time around the line of scrimmage.

News out of camp wasn’t full of praise for Lock. He has the stuff to become a good quarterback, but taking on a team like the Titans is going to be a test, as they are strong in every phase of the game. In the end, I like Henry to take it to the Broncos defense and Lock to make a couple mistakes to cinch the victory for Tennessee.

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