Why you should take the over and Dallas ATS in Rams vs. Cowboys SNF

The Dallas Cowboys head to Los Angeles to take on the Rams to start the 2020 NFL season. These two met last in December, when the Cowboys romped the Rams 44-21 in Jerryville. Dallas truly took it to the Rams, as both Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard rushed for over 100 yards, scoring three rushing touchdowns.

We can’t expect a similar game this week when projecting game flow, as the Cowboys likely won’t have two 100-yard rushers again, but we can expect another fast-paced matchup. Last season, the Cowboys and Rams ranked 2nd and 3rd in situation-neutral pace. That breakneck pace helped both teams land in the Top-10 of points scored. Both teams have kept their offensive philosophy intact for this season and should again lead in pace.

The Cowboys are road favorites in this game, as they are favored by 2.5-points. The total is set at 51.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

ATS Pick: Cowboys
Point Total Pick: Over

Last season the Cowboys games went over the third-most in the league at 62.5 percent while the Rams went under more often than not. Of course, last year’s 65-point total was one for the over column.

This season the Cowboys have added another weapon to their arsenal, as CeeDee Lamb will take over for Randall Cobb, which is a massive upgrade in talent at their respective points in their careers. Dallas also gets an upgrade offensively at tight end with Blake Jarwin over the quite old Jason Witten. The Rams lost Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley, but appear to have filled those holes with Van Jefferson, Cam Akers and a strong set of tight ends.

Both teams have holes in their defense that can be exploited, with the Cowboys losing Byron Jones, Gerald McCoy, Maliek Collins, Robert Quinn and won’t have Sean Lee or Randy Gregory in Week 1. They have found some useful replacements, but overall, the defense should be worse than last season. The same can probably be said about the Rams. They kept Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald, so the base is strong, but overall they lost more than they gained defensively.

51.5 total points is a high mark, but these two teams should push the pace and the point total. The lack of preseason, in my opinion, is better for offenses as defenses won’t be sharp and likely have more trouble tackling without those in game reps.

A high-scoring affair should favor the Cowboys, who are stacked at every offensive skill position, while the Rams didn’t do enough to solidify their offensive line after a poor 2019. I’m more interested in betting the Cowboys against the spread here, but I’ll also be betting the over.

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