The NFL returns Thursday evening, and the Week 1 opener should be a wild one. The Kansas City Chiefs open their title defense when they host the Houston Texans in a rematch of their wild divisional round matchup. The Chiefs stormed back from a 24-0 deficit to win 51-31 en route to the Super Bowl.

The Chiefs return much of their roster intact, although they have a big change at running back. The team drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft and then saw starter Damien Williams elect to opt out due to the Covid-19 pandemic. CEH is now the starter with Darrel Williams serving as his complement.

The Texans made a huge move this offseason, trading wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals in a deal that got them running back David Johnson. The Texans also acquired wide receiver Brandin Cooks, who is competing with Will Fuller to be Deshaun Watson’s top receiver. However, Cooks is questionable with a quadriceps injury after missing practice on Tuesday and being limited on Monday and Wednesday.

There is a better than even chance this turns into a shootout. Even without Nuk, Watson is capable of putting this Texans offense on his back. The 54.5 point total is the highest on the Week 1 slate, 2.5 points clear of the next closest (Cowboys-Rams). It should make for a fun night for fantasy football managers.

Matchups are going to be key, but it helps to see what the analytics are saying about potential performances. Looking at fantasy projections for season-long leagues (1/2 PPR setting), you can’t really go wrong with most of your big name pieces. And for deeper leagues, reserves like Mecole Hardman, Duke Johnson, and more offer some value.

This should be a fun one. I think the Chiefs win a close one, but either way, look for it to turn into a shootout. Here are Week 1 fantasy points projections to help you further improve your chances to get off to a strong start.

Houston Texans

QB Deshaun Watson: 21.9
RB David Johnson: 13.6
RB Duke Johnson: 7.5
WR Will Fuller: 10.7
WR Brandin Cooks: 9.9
WR: Randall Cobb 6.9
WR Kenny Stills: 3.6
TE Jordin Akins: 4.4
TE Darren Fells: 4.4
K Ka’imi Fairbairn: 7.5
D/ST: 2.8

Kansas City Chiefs

QB Patrick Mahomes: 23.3
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire: 13.7
RB Darrel Williams: 6.7
WR Tyreek Hill: 14.3
WR Sammy Watkins: 7.7
WR Mecole Hardman: 6.2
WR Demarcus Robinson: 3.3
TE Travis Kelce: 14.1
K Harrison Butker: 9.0
D/ST: 5.6