clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Predictions, Betting Odds for August 4

Steve Buchanan breaks down Tuesday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Houston Astros Summer Workouts Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images

It was a good overall night of baseball aside from the horrible injury suffered by Mike Soroka, who ended up with a torn Achilles after attempting to cover first. The Braves rotation is in some serious trouble moving forward unless they go out and find an arm. They’ll be in action tonight against the Blue Jays along with nine other games on this 10-game slate.

This piece will cover the main slate that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET. As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $350K Relay Throw [$100K to 1st, TO]

Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Kyle Hendricks, $7,700, CHC (-200) vs. KCR (+170) — Hendricks has had quite the start to the season. He opened the season tossing a complete game shutout against the Brewers and then followed that up by getting wrecked by the Reds for six runs. Maybe something in the middle tonight against the Royals? Hendricks was stellar at Wrigley Field last season, allowing just a .240 wOBA with 2.87 FIP and only six of his 18 home runs. He’s not the most reliable pitcher for strikeouts, logging a 20.5 K% last season but with winds blowing in tonight from left field, I think Hendricks at his $7,700 salary is more than worth it.

Other notable favorites: German Marquez ($8,100; -190) vs. Giants, Andrew Heaney ($8,000; -186) vs. Mariners

Highest Projected Total

SF (+155) vs. COL (-190) 11.5 runs — Don’t let the total fool you, this game is heavily weighted toward the Rockies, who have a 6.5 implied team total compared to the 4.5 of the Giants. The Rockies are big favorites as they send German Marquez ($8,100) to the hill to oppose Kevin Gausman ($5,700). It looks as if Gausman has been quite unlucky thus far, as his 5.40 ERA doesn’t tell the whole story compared to his 2.56 FIP through 8 13 innings. Nonetheless, it’s hard to trust him at Coors Field, especially against a team with a team total as high as the Rockies have. Last season on the road, Gausman had a .370 wOBA and a 4.80 FIP

Other notable team totals: Angels (5.5) vs. Mariners, Braves (4.5) vs. Blue Jays, Astros (4.5) vs. Diamondbacks

Weather Concerns

Clear night of baseball!

Splits to Start

Note: This section will show stats for 2019 until Aug. 6.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Steven Matz, .339, 4.84
Kevin Gausman, .329, 4.28
German Marquez .328, 4.57

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Patrick Corbin, .229, 1.77
John Means, .235, 2.96
Madison Bumgarner, .237, 2.63

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Kevin Gausman, .333, 3.73
Max Fried, .326, 3.89
Steven Matz, .321, 4.54

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Dustin May, .210, 2.74
Brandon Woodruff, .240, 2.35
Lance Lynn, .277, 2.95

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Lance Lynn, TEX at OAK, $9,900 — I don’t know how Lynn is doing it but he’s been as good as you could ask through his first two stats. Facing the Rockies and Diamondbacks, Lynn has thrown 12 shutout innings allowing just three hits and striking out 17. That’s pretty damn impressive. Now he faces an Athletics team that DID score 11 runs last night but has been a very poor offense otherwise. Against righties, the A’s have just a .290 wOBA (22nd) a .102 ISO (27th) and a 23.4 K% (14th). I’m more than willing to use Lynn in this spot.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Alex Bregman, HOU at ARI, $5,000 — This is a such a good spot for Bregman against Bumgarner. He was a nightmare for opposing left-handed pitchers, posting a .473 wOBA with a .393 ISO and 16 of his 41 home runs. As for Bumgarner, when he was with the Giants last season, he struggled on the road allowing a .365 wOBA with a 5.23 FIP and 12 of his 30 home runs allowed. Bregman could easily be a few hundred dollars more.

Save Big by Drafting

Carter Kieboom, WAS vs. NYM, $3,700 — Kieboom is still in search of his first extra base hit of the season but this could be the night going up against Steven Matz ($7,400). When Matz is on the road, he becomes a massive liability, allowing a .366 wOBA with a 6.04 FIP and 19 of his 27 home runs allowed. We’ve yet to see it up in the majors but Kieboom has some good pop and a bit of speed to his game. Last season in Triple-A, Kieboom posted an overall .189 ISO through 109 games.

Favorite Team To Stack

HOU at ARI (Madison Bumgarner) — This is going to be such a tough spot for Bumgarner and I don’t think he’s going to make it very far. The Astros are simply too good against lefties and if he’s not in a cozy ballpark, Bumgarner has really struggled. Behind Bumgarner will also be a shaky D-Backs bullpen thus far this season. Through 35 23 innings, they’ve allowed a 4.75 FIP and a 15.2 BB%. With those type of numbers, I’d imagine the Astros are going to be getting on base early and often.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $350K Relay Throw [$100K to 1st, TO]

Place your MLB bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DK Sportsbook app.

Major League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are used with permission of the applicable MLB entity. All rights reserved.

Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.

For sports betting, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DK Sportsbook app.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA) or 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN) or 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO). NH/NJ/WV/IN/PA/CO only. 21+ (18+ NH). Eligibility Restrictions Apply. See website for details. Odds and lines subject to change.