Friday is going to be a very messy slate to tackle, as rain will be threatening in multiple games. We’ll have to really keep our eye on this as we get closer to lock but, nonetheless, we have plenty of information to get into on this 12-game slate.
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Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Dustin May, $9,100, LAD (-230) vs. TEX (+195) — The Dodgers are massive favorites on this slate because they always are — at least it seems like. This one feels justified, as they take on a struggling Mike Minor ($8,300) and the Rangers’ bullpen. Minor has already allowed seven home runs through six starts and has a 5.30 FIP and 48.4% hard hit rate. The Dodgers have been underperforming a bit against lefties, but still have some very strong bats in the mix like Mookie Betts ($6,200), AJ Pollock ($4,300) and Justin Turner ($4,900). Dustin May ($9,100) continues to be a bit too expensive for my taste, as his 16.7% strikeout rate is very low for someone in the $9K range. He’s only scored double-digit fantasy points in two of his six starts, making him a really tough sell at this salary. While the matchup is good and he really limits the damage, it would take a stellar performance for him to reach value at this price.
Other notable favorites: Corbin Burnes ($8,100; -205) vs. Pirates, Andrew Heaney ($7,800; -205) vs. Mariners
Highest Projected Total
SDP (-115, 6.5 runs) vs. COL (EV, 5.5 runs) 12 runs — It’s a huge total at Coors Field, but we have weather concerns here. Rain is going to be in the area all throughout the evening, making this a very risky game to target. The Padres, with a 6.5 team total, is clearly an offense you’d want to target against Kyle Freeland ($7,200), who, to his credit, has pitched VERY well thus far. His 4.48 FIP does indicate that regression should be coming and facing a team with a .331 wOBA and a .202 ISO could be the matchup that breaks through. Before making your lineups, it’ll be extremely important to check the weather once again, but this game certainly has a ton of fantasy goodness baked into it.
Other notable team totals: LAD (5.5) vs. TEX, CWS (5.5) vs. KCR
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KCR @ CWS - This game looks as if it should start without issue, it’s later in the evening where we run into the problems. If you’re thinking of stacking the White Sox, which sounds like a great idea, this would be a game you need to check on later today.
Editors Note: The start time for KCR @ CWS has been moved up from 8:10 p.m. ET to 7:10 p.m. ET.
CHC @ CIN - Rain all throughout the area, making it very hard to know where the storms will end up. This could totally miss Great American Ball Park or land right over it. Too hard to tell this morning.
ATL @ PHI - It looks as if this could be delayed to start, but once it clears, they should be able to play.
SDP @ COL - What’s likely the most important game to watch in terms of weather, as it would shift ownership to other games dramatically or be a very appealing GPP stack if people are on the fence. This has a significant chance of simply not starting or getting called in the middle of the game. Keep an eye on this one even if you’re fading, as it’ll take a lot of expensive hitters off the board.
Splits to Start
Note: This section will now show the combined stats from 2019 and 2020
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Corbin Burnes .427, 6.47
Nick Margevicius, .425, 5.66
Andrew Heaney, .369, 4.64
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Derek Holland, .233, 3.27
Martin Perez, .264, 3.26
Kyle Hendricks, .265, 3.05
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Derek Holland, .409, 7,40
Kyle Freeland, .362, 5.96
Tyler Anderson, .349, 5.24
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Max Scherzer, .228, 1.77
Dustin May, .233, 3.16
Zack Wheeler, .273 3.04
Pitcher to Build Around
Zac Gallen, ARI vs. SF, $9,700 — With the idea of staying away from games with rain potential, Gallen and Max Scherzer ($11,000) are the two pitchers that stick out. I’m rolling with Gallen in this spot, although it’s very, very close between the two. He’s faced the Giants once already and allowed just one run on three hits while striking out six, good for 19.3 DKFP. His command was a bit shaky in that game but, overall, he’s been very good in that department. Gallen has produced double-digit fantasy points in every game he’s pitched thus far and has topped 20.0 DKFP in three of them.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Tim Anderson, CWS vs. KCR, $5,500 — I mean, can you find a hotter hitter against lefties than Anderson right now? His numbers against lefties through 28 plate appearances don’t even make sense. It’s like playing a video game on rookie mode. Anderson will enter this game with a .832 wOBA, an .880 ISO and a 81.8% hard hit rate within the split. Just to further paint the picture, he has 15 hits against LHPs, 10 of which have gone for extra bases. Let’s just hope the rain holds off.
Save Big by Drafting
Christian Walker, ARI vs. SF, $3,900 — Walker is starting to come around offensively and he has a good matchup to keep that rolling against Tyler Anderson ($6,400). Over his last 10 games, Walker is averaging 9.2 DKFP with two home runs, three doubles and six RBI. While Anderson’s numbers don’t look bad on the surface, he does have a 4.17 FIP against righties with a 42.4% hard hit rate allowed.
Favorite Team To Stack
LAD vs. TEX (vs. Mike Minor) — I really am digging this spot for the Dodgers, as I mentioned earlier. Between the struggles of Minor and a very shaky Rangers bullpen, I think the Dodgers will be able to post some strong fantasy numbers in this game. Through six starts, Minor has yet to make out through five innings aside from one game and has allowed five (!) home runs over his last two.
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