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NBA DFS breakdown, lineup notes for August 25

Can Luka Doncic follow up his last monster performance with another in Game 5?

Luka Doncic of the Dallas Mavericks handles the ball against the LA Clippers during Round One Game Four of the NBA Playoffs on August 23, 2020 at The AdventHealth Arena at ESPN Wide World Of Sports Complex in Orlando, Florida. Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images

It could be hard to find variance in this slate, as there will only be two games. The Utah Jazz will look to eliminate the Denver Nuggets from the playoffs in the first game of the day. Then the Los Angeles Clippers look to redeem themselves after losing to Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks at the buzzer on Monday. I’ll go over the full slate here.

Jazz vs. Nuggets, 6:30 p.m. ET

Spread: UTA (-2.5)
Over/Under: 219.5
Here’s our Showdown breakdown of this game.

The last matchup between these two teams saw Donovan Mitchell ($9,700) and Jamal Murray ($8,000) score at least 50 points. Expect both guards to carry heavy workloads in this potential closeout game. Mitchell might be a little overpriced. He’s the third most expensive player in the slate, but the Jazz have other guards like Mike Conley ($6,700) and Jordan Clarkson ($5,200) to help him out. I think Murray is the better play here. There is plenty of value in the late game.

Michael Porter Jr.’s ($5,700) price has dropped significantly, but he won’t be worth playing unless he shoots lights out as soon as he gets in the game. I’d fade him because of how much is at risk in this game. The Nuggets need defense more than ever. Paul Millsap ($5,000) could provide some value at power forward. Rudy Gobert is the only quality big the Jazz have, and Millsap tallied 35.3 DKFP in 35 minutes his last time out.

Mavericks vs. Clippers, 9:00 p.m. ET

Spread: LAC (-8)
Over/Under: 236
Here’s our Showdown breakdown of this game.

This is the game where value comes into play. Kristaps Porzingis has been ruled out because of knee pain for a second straight game, and Doncic ($11,000) posted the best fantasy line we’ve seen at this point in the postseason with 43 points, 17 rebounds, and 13 assists his last time out. Trey Burke ($4,500) might be the best play under $5,000 with Porzingis out. He scored a playoff-high 25 points in Game 4 and finished with 37.8 DKFP in 37 minutes. Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,800) is dealing with multiple injuries and is listed as questionable. If he’s ruled out, Maxi Kleber ($4,200). and Boban Marjanovic ($3,800) should get an increase in minutes.

Paul George ($8,300) has shot just over 21 percent from the field from Game 2 through Game 4 and will likely be low owned. He could be the kind of variance play that pays off in GPPs in a major way, but I wouldn’t risk taking a chance on him for that price in such a small slate. Lou Williams ($6,400) is more enticing coming off the bench and seems likely to be Kawhi Leonard’s ($10,000) co-star. He’ll cost more than $6,000 for the first time since February and is well worth that price. Landry Shamet ($3,600) has been inserted into the starting lineup and missed a few open looks from deep his last time out. If he knocks those down in Game 5, he could easily return at least 5x value for a third straight game.

Lock of the Night: Luka Doncic ($11,000)

Doncic logged 46 minutes in his last game and will likely eclipse 40 minutes again this time around. He’ll see more of the ball than any other player in the slate and the Clippers haven’t found a way to slow him down. Murray ($8,000) gets an honorable mention, as he’ll likely have to take at least 30 shots for the desperate Nuggets. I think fitting both these players in your lineup will be essential to success.