A new survey shows Joe Biden once again leading in Texas, and the bettors at PredictIt have seemed to take it into account while still giving President Donald Trump the lead in the state.
Public Policy Polling took a sample of 764 registered voters that showed Biden leading Trump 48%-47% in the state. It’s a B-rated poll by FiveThirtyEight.com, and has a margin of error of +/-3.6 percentage points. But it also shows 7% of Donald Trump voters in 2016 moving across the aisle to Biden in 2020, and 3% of Hillary Clinton voters now a part of Trump’s camp.
The Democratic National Convention appears to went pretty well for Biden, who received a bit of a bounce in polling as well as on PredictIt. He peaked at .37 cents from the weeks of July 15-29 on the site, but has fallen back to .28 as of now, a small recovery from his low of .26 on August 19th.
But now it’s the Republicans turn, and we wait for polling take during and after their four-night campaign commercial broadcast to homes all across America. Will they see a bounce as well out of their event, with President Trump scheduled to speak from the White House Rose Garden on Thursday night? Keep an eye on the polling and PredictIt for an indication of how effective a convention might be.
It turns out Texas might be one of the more difficult states to handicap in DraftKings 2020 $100,000 Presidential Election Pool, with the results in 11 different states as well as the Presidency determining who will be the winners.