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NBA DFS breakdown, lineup notes for August 23

The Raptors have a ton of potential ahead of Sunday’s potential closeout game against the Nets. We’ll go over the full slate here.

Fred VanVleet of the Toronto Raptors and Kyle Lowry #7 of the Toronto Raptors huddle up during Round One, Game One of the NBA Playoffs on August 17, 2020 at AdventHealth Arena at ESPN Wide World of Sports in Orlando, Florida. Photo by David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images

Sunday’s NBA action could see two sweeps be completed, as the Boston Celtics are up 3-0 against the Philadelphia 76ers while the Brooklyn Nets will face elimination against the Toronto Raptors. Will the desperation of teams against the wall make for some interesting fantasy lines? Let’s go over the four-game main slate.

Celtics vs. 76ers, 1:00 p.m. ET

Spread: BOS (-7.5)
Over/Under: 215.5
Here’s our Showdown breakdown of this game.

Expect the 76ers to play their key players a ton in this one. It’s clear that Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris will be heavily featured, but so will Josh Richardson. One of the key value plays worth keeping an eye on is Shake Milton ($4,400). The point guard has struggled shooting the ball lately but played 38 minutes in Game 3. I think he could return big-time value if his shot falls early.

Jayson Tatum’s streak of 50-point fantasy performances was snapped in Game 3. He likely bounces back in Game 4, but Kemba Walker ($6,900) has a good chance to return more value with Gordon Hayward out.

Recap: I hit the nail on the head with Walker, as he scored a game-high 32 points and tallied 50 DKFP to return more than 7x value. Tatum ($9,000) returned just under 7x value with a game-high 60.75 DKFP with 28 points and 15 rebounds.

Embiid led the 76ers with 30 points and 10 rebounds to finish with 52.5 DKFP while Milton and Richardson were right at 5x value.

Clippers vs. Mavericks, 3:30 p.m. ET

Spread: LAC (-7)
Over/Under: 231
Here’s our Showdown breakdown of this game.

Luka Doncic is the most expensive player on the slate but will be a game-time decision because of the ankle injury he suffered his last time out. If he’s ruled out before the tip, players like Delon Wright, J.J. Barea, and Seth Curry could receive a bump. However, I think Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,700) is a better pivot.

Kawhi Leonard ($9,800) never disappoints and has yet to fall below 50 DKFP in the playoffs. He’s returned 6x value twice in three games, which is great given his price. Stacking him with Marcus Morris, who has eclipsed 30 DKFP in three straight games could be ideal, as Paul George’s slump has made him a less viable option lately.

Recap: Leonard go some help from overtime after a slow start but tallied a team-high 55.75 DKFP on 32 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assists. Doncic stole the show with 43 points, 17 rebounds, and 13 assists and finished with a ridiculous 92.75 DKFP while missing Kristaps Porzingis (knee). Morris and Shamet had modest performances as George’s slump continued, but Lou Williams scored 36 points off the bench for 50.5 DKFP.

Raptors vs. Nets, 6:30 p.m. ET

Spread: TOR (-13)
Over/Under: 220
Here’s our Showdown breakdown of this game.

Toronto is expected to win big and close out this series, but Brooklyn has kept it close through three quarters so far. Don’t expect the Raptors to let off the gas. Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet have combined for at least 80 DKFP in every game this series and have cracked 90 twice. Getting both in a closeout game should return 5x value at the very least. Getting extra rest could be valuable in this playoff format, as all the games have been close together.

The Nets, aside from Tyler Johnson, were mostly a letdown after losing Joe Harris ahead of Game 3. Caris LeVert could still return significant value, but the role players around him have seen their prices go up. Brooklyn could put up a decent fight, but I’m not sold on Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot and Jarrett Allen being the key to winning GPPs.

Recap: Lowry only recorded 13 DKFP before suffering an injury in the first quarter and Fred VanVleet only contributed 9 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 assists in his team’s blowout win. Serge Ibaka unexpectedly led the Raptors with 55.75 DKFP on 27 points and 15 rebounds. Toronto got 100 points off its bench.

Caris LeVert tallied a game-high 35 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists to tally 57 DKFP.

Nuggets vs. Jazz, 9:00 p.m. ET

Spread: UTA (-3)
Over/Under: 216
Here’s our Showdown breakdown of this game.

There’s no way the Nuggets could be as terrible as they were in Game 3, right? Jamal Murray hasn’t looked the same since Royce O’Neale started defending him, so I think Nikola Jokic is more likely to have a bounce-back game. Michael Porter Jr. should be low owned, but he’s been a defensive liability against a Jazz team that’s only gotten better with Mike Conley’s return. Gary Harris ($3,600) has been upgraded to doubtful, and could be a top-notch value play.

Donovan Mitchell is overpriced at $9,500 and doesn’t seem to be as appealing as Conley. Joe Ingles’ reduction in ball-handling makes him a fade for me as well. O’Neale should play more than 30 minutes if Game 4 is close and is worth a look at $4,000 despite an underwhelming Game 3 performance. He’s thrived and put up more than 30 DKFP with the Jazz completely healthy.

Lock of the Day: Kawhi Leonard ($9,800)

Leonard came close to a triple-double Friday and posted his best line of the playoffs. He’s had one of the sturdies floor’s among stars and has been leaned on by the Clippers while George has slipped.

Sleeper: Landry Shamet ($3,400)

Shamet unexpectedly played 27 minutes in Friday and produced 26.3 DKFP. His scoring punch made up for George’s poor scoring, and he could get more time alongside Leonard if that trend continues.