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New poll shows Joe Biden with a slim lead over Donald Trump in Texas

A new survey from Global Strategy Group shows the impossible might be... possible?

By Collin Sherwin
Vice President of the United States Joe Biden walks off of the field after the coin toss before a game between the Army Black Knights and the Navy Midshipmen on December 8, 2012 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Photo by Hunter Martin/Getty Images

A poll of 700 likely voters in Texas shows Joe Biden ahead in the Lone Star State, which if it held until Election Day would guarantee him victory in 2020.

The Global Strategy Group poll is only rated B/C from FiveThirtyEight.com, and was taken between August 11-13, 2020. The margin of error is set at +/- 3.7%, and

A six-point lead among self-identified independents (37% Biden/31% Trump). This is driven by Trump’s acute unpopularity among independents (33% fav/55% unfav). Republicans have just a two-point lead on the generic ballot for state representative (44% Democrat/46% Republican) and Democrats are more motivated to vote this November (79% of Democrats are extremely motivated to vote vs. 75% of Republicans who are extremely motivated to vote).

It’s only one sample of many, and not the most historically accurate one either, but for those selecting who will be the overall winner in DraftKings Sportsbook’s $100,000 Presidential Election Pool, it’s information worth considering just 75 days from the final votes being cast.

As of now Trump holds a .75-.27 lead on PredictIt, and a YouGov survey released just three days ago shows Biden down seven points at 48%-41%. But the toughest factor for pollsters will be projecting what the demographics of the Texas electorate will look like. The Democrats have put millions into voter registration efforts in the traditionally low-turnout state since 2016, but with Covid-19 raging and mail-in voting more difficult than in most places, it will all come down to turnout.

Which can be said of every election, but especially this one.

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