A bettors guide to the Democratic National Convention: Day 4

There’s five big checkpoints for any major party challenger to the White House: the selection of a Vice Presidential nominee, the party convention, and the presidential debates. With California Senator Kamala Harris the pick, we’ll head towards the second of the benchmarks this week as for the first time a national convention shall be held virtually.

This will also help bettors participating in DraftKings Sportsbook’s $100,000 Presidential Election pool, which is free to enter and asks participants to select the winner of 11 states as well as the overall election.

How to watch

The final night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention will air from 9 p.m. to 11 p.m on Thursday.

• There’s an official livesteam from the Democratic party available here, and it will also be available on platforms such as YouTube, Facebook and Twitter. You’ll also get wall-to-wall coverage from C-SPAN, CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC. The major networks such as ABC, NBC, CBS, and Fox are only showing the last hour from 10 p.m.-11 p.m., which will include the speeches of Vice Presidential nominee Kamala Harris, and former President Barack Obama.
• While this convention will likely make less news than ones in the past, as normal business such as approving the party platform has already been done by delegates over email. The speeches will take center stage, and without production and interruptions for applause should mostly be on-time. They will also, for the most part, lack podiums.
• If you’re looking for a possible breakdown of how things are going for the Democrats, PredictIt will offer real time feedback as traders will be buying and selling shares based on the upcoming election as the convention happens. If some major news breaks, you’ll likely be able to track how the politically engaged think it affects the eventual outcome pretty close to immediately.

List of Thursday speakers

This evening’s activities will be hosted by actress Julia Louis-Dreyfus, with a theme of “America’s Promise.”

9 p.m. speakers

Senator Cory Booker
Pete Buttigieg
Performance by The Chicks
Governor Gavin Newsom
Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms
Senator Tammy Baldwin
Senator Tammy Duckworth
Senator Chris Coons
Performance by John Legend and Common
Andrew Yang
Michael Bloomberg

10 p.m. speakers

Former Vice President Joe Biden

PredictIt Market Prices

Entering the convention, Joe Biden led with a .59 price to win the general election on PredictIt, with Donald Trump at .44.

As of 6:45 am this morning, Biden’s lead had gone back to .59, with President Trump off a penny from the start of the convention to .43. Keep in mind there are other factors at play here, but the well-regarded speech of Michelle Obama on Monday, as well as the work of Barack Obama and Kamala Harris last night, seems to have lifted the ship a bit.

This is the real-time opinion of traders on the platform that are buying and selling shares as if they were commodities contracts, so they won’t have to wait until election night to get paid and can profit-take based on what happens between now and the convention. Also keep in mind because of the bid/ask pricing at PredictIt, all pricing won’t add up to exactly $1.

Before Night 1

Arizona: Biden leads .57-.45
Georgia: Trump leads .65-.37
Florida: Biden leads .53-.48
Michigan: Biden leads .74-.31
North Carolina: Trump leads .53-.50
Ohio: Trump leads .63-.39
Pennsylvania: Biden leads .69-.35
Texas: Trump leads .77-.26
Wisconsin: Biden leads .66-.36

After Night 1 (as of 6:45 a.m. Tuesday)

Arizona: Biden leads .56-.45
Georgia: Trump leads .65-.36
Florida: Biden leads .53-.50
Michigan: Biden leads .72-.30
North Carolina: Trump leads .54-.49
Ohio: Trump leads .64-.38
Pennsylvania: Biden leads .65-.36
Texas: Trump leads .76-.27
Wisconsin: Biden leads .65-.36

After Night 2 (as of 6:45 a.m. Wednesday)

Arizona: Biden leads .56-.48
Georgia: Trump leads .67-.36
Florida: Biden leads .53-.50
Michigan: Biden leads .72-.29
North Carolina: Trump leads .52-.49
Ohio: Trump leads .65-.37
Pennsylvania: Biden leads .65-.38
Texas: Trump leads .77-.26
Wisconsin: Biden leads .64-.37

After Night 3 (as of 5:00 a.m. Thursday)

Arizona: Biden leads .56-.46
Georgia: Trump leads .66-.37
Florida: Biden leads .55-.47
Michigan: Biden leads .74-.27
North Carolina: Trump leads .52-.49
Ohio: Trump leads .63-.39
Pennsylvania: Biden leads .67-.34
Texas: Trump leads .75-.26
Wisconsin: Biden leads .66-.35