NBA DFS breakdown, lineup notes for August 19

Day 3 of the 2020 NBA playoffs are upon us, and we’ve already seen several spectacular performances from a DFS perspective in the Game 1s that have transpired. Utah Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell scored 57 points against the Denver Nuggets on Monday to earn the third spot on the all-time list for most points scored in a single playoff game. Then there’s Luka Doncic, who flirted with a triple-double against the Clippers and broke the record for most points scored by any player in a postseason debut with 42.

Prices have been inflated following Monday’s performances, and I’ll go over my breakdown of Wednesday’s four-game main slate below. Finding value could be tricky now that all the heavy hitters are so expensive, and I think I can help you sort through the craziness.

One of the most important trends I’ve noticed so far this postseason is that stacking high-scoring games can lead to a ton of success in GPP contests. I think the most enticing matchups are the first two games of the day in this one, and I’ll start with what makes the Brooklyn Nets-Toronto Raptors matchup key.

Brooklyn averaged more possessions (106) this year than any other team playing today and lead all playoff teams in frontcourt postseason touches (242). Caris LeVert has emerged as the Nets’ top playmaker and scorer, so he should see plenty of the ball. Toronto has great team defense, but LeVert has thrived against its smaller guards in the past and will likely shoot better this time around than he did in Game 1. He should be one of the top plays of the day at $8,200, and teammates like Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot and Joe Harris stand out as quality value plays.

Toronto can get big scoring numbers from just about every position, but it has a big advantage in the post. Jarrett Allen is playing at a high level, but Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka have been able to bully Brooklyn’s other bigs. Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, and Pascal Siakam are all capable of stuffing the stat sheet, but Raptors role players that could play close to 30 minutes — like OG Anunoby — should receive strong consideration.

Now for the second game of the day. It’s not hard to see why the Jazz-Nuggets game is so appealing. The two teams have gone to overtime twice in a row and eclipsed 260 total points in both meetings. Mitchell has the highest usage percentage (44.4) in the bubble. He’ll take as many shots as he needs to for a win and has taken 33 shots in each of his last two matchups against. His team has put up a ton of points, and the starters playing with him — aside from Rudy Gobert — are relatively cheap.

Denver isn’t quite as affordable with Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, and Michael Porter Jr. as the most potent offensive threats, but the Nuggets also offer quality value. Monte Morris ($3,700) might be the best guard play under $4,000 now that Jordan Clarkson is $4,700 on the main slate. Then there’s Jerami Grant, who is splitting time with Paul Millsap at power forward. There’s no shortage of firepower if you want to put together a few lineups centering around this game. If you do, Mitchell ($9,200) is a must-have despite his massive price increase from $8,200.

The Boston Celtics-Philadelphia 76ers game doesn’t seem very appealing to me, but Kemba Walker could be worth a look while Gordon Hayward out of commission with an ankle sprain. The Celtics will likely replace Hayward with Marcus Smart in the starting lineup, but cheap frontcourt players like Robert Williams or Grant Williams could get extended run.

There’s tons of potential in the final game of the day with Luka Doncic, Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George in the Dallas Mavericks-Los Angeles Clippers matchup. All of them are typically a lock for more than 40 DKFP, but Doncic will likely have to come close to a triple-double to keep this game close and is the best option of the three. Kristaps Porzingis’ (knee) status could be big, and if he doesn’t play we could get some significant Boban Marjanovic minutes.

I’ll update this article later with Wednesday’s more notable performances to see how I did. If you’d like to ask any questions about strategy ahead of the action or while games are going on, you can find me at @its_ameericle on Twitter.