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Two major polls released today that were taken after Joe Biden nominated Kamala Harris to be his Vice President show that the Democrats are still ahead and would be heavily favored to win the White House if the election were held tomorrow.
CBS News has Biden leading President Trump 52%-42% amongst likely voters, with the former Vice President having 279 electoral votes likely or leaning his way as of now. President Trump has 163 electoral votes in his column, leaving 96 as a toss-up between the sides. A candidate needs 270 votes to win election.
The toss-up states as of now are Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, and Ohio.
CBS also issued statewide numbers, and for participants in DraftKings Sportsbook’s $100,000 Presidential Election Pool, these might be the most important.
CBS News 8/16
| State | Biden | Trump |
|---|---|---|
| State | Biden | Trump |
| Arizona | 51% | 46% |
| Florida | 51% | 47% |
| Georgia | 51% | 47% |
| Iowa | 49% | 48% |
| North Carolina | 51% | 46% |
| Ohio | 48% | 49% |
| Pennsylvania | 52% | 46% |
| Michigan | 53% | 45% |
| Wisconsin | 52% | 45% |
| New Jersey | 60% | 38% |
| Colorado | 55% | 42% |
| Indiana | 45% | 53% |
| West Virginia | 33% | 65% |
Also NBC News and the Wall Street Journal interviewed 900 registered voters, for a margin of error of +/- 3.27%, and they have Biden leading 50%-41%. That’s down two points from last month, where Biden was ahead 51%-40%.
The poll also included favorability ratings on both candidates, and had Trump with a 40% positive rating and a 52% negative outcome. It had Biden at 39% positive to 45% negative. Interesting was the favorability of President Obama, who was regarded 54% favorable to 34% unfavorable, which might have an impact as the candidates get closer to election time during campaigning.
If the election were held tomorrow, the numbers above show it is very likely Joe Biden would be the next President. But with 79 days, two party conventions, likely three debates, and even more to come, there’s still plenty of things that can happen before we see who will lead the nation beginning on January 20th, 2021.