We have 11 baseball games to bet on for tonight’s slate. Here’s what stands out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook on Wednesday.
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Miami Marlins
Moneyline - UNDER 8.5 RUNS (-110)
When do we start calling them the Buffalo Blue Jays? It has a nice ring to it and the Jays play their home games in Buffalo this season. Playing their first home game of the season yesterday, Toronto came out on top with a 5-4 win in extra innings. As of now, we don’t have a ton of information on the new ballpark although it played as a slight pitcher’s park based on minor league data. Since Toronto’s normal home park is favorable to hitters, I don’t think the adjustment is baked into the betting lines yet.
There is also reason to like the pitchers today. One of the top pitching prospects in baseball, Nate Pearson, is on the mound for Toronto. So far, he’s looked great. In two starts, he’s allowed just three runs while striking out a batter per inning. Pearson figures to pitch another gem against a weak Marlins’ offense.
The Marlins are also sending a quality young pitcher to the mound. At 24-years-old, Jordan Yamamoto looked solid last year in his first MLB season. He struck out over a batter per inning with a not terrible 4.46 ERA. His minor league numbers were outstanding and it stands to reason the Yamamoto will improve on his rookie season.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Kansas City Royals
Moneyline - CIN (-120)
I don’t quite understand the line in this game. Cincinnati is at home, has the far superior offense and the pitching matchup between Brad Keller and Wade Miley is about a wash. Last season, Miley posted a 3.98 ERA compared to a 4.19 ERA for Keller. In addition, the expectation for this season is that the Reds’ offense is slightly above average compared to the Royals, likely having one of the weaker offenses in baseball. For this reason, Cincy seems like it should be a favorite closer to the -150 to -160 range. At nearly even odds, the line isn’t wide enough for this contest.
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Moneyline - TB (-167)
After trading away Mookie Betts prior to the season and then losing Chris Sale to an arm injury, Boston’s season is going about as poorly as possible. Opening the season with a 6-11 record, the Red Sox have the worst winning percentage in the American League. Across baseball, the only teams with worse records are the Cardinals and Pirates. Today, things don’t get any easier in a matchup against Blake Snell.
While Snell is not yet at full strength, he is still expected to work around five innings today against Boston. From what we have seen, Snell looks great in limited innings. He struck out five hitters in three hitless innings against the Yankees in his last time out and has opened the season striking out 15.75 hitters per nine innings. Something else to consider is that the Rays have one of the top bullpens in baseball. This means that they should easily fill in the innings after Snell. This is a far better pitching situation than what Boston has going by sending Zack Godley to the mound. He had a 5.97 ERA last year and is projected by ZiPS for a 4.85 ERA this year. This is in addition to the Red Sox having a terrible bullpen.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Moneyline - SD (+138)
The Padres aren’t getting enough love from the oddsmakers. For the third consecutive night, they are underdogs against the Dodgers despite wining the first two games of the series. This puts them into a tie with Los Angeles in the standings. Led by MVP candidate Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego should be taken seriously as a World Series contender. Tatis is off to a torrid start and leads all of baseball in WAR.
On the mound, San Diego is starting a competent pitcher in Zach Davies. What I really like about his start to the season is the amount of strikes he’s throwing. In three starts, Davies has only issued one walk. This makes him a fairly safe pitcher who shouldn’t get blown up often. This game is probably going to be close, but I am willing to take the Padres at plus money in just about any situation. They are my top up and coming team in the league.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is gehrenberg) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.