UPDATE 4:20 p.m.: Joe Biden made the pick official, announcing Kamala Harris will be his running mate this fall for the 2020 presidential election. Harris has been favored throughout the process, and her price at PredictIt’s market shot up over the past hour.
I have the great honor to announce that I’ve picked @KamalaHarris — a fearless fighter for the little guy, and one of the country’s finest public servants — as my running mate.— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) August 11, 2020
UPDATE 4:08 p.m.: Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer is not getting the VP nod, per the New York Times.
UPDATE 3:55 p.m.: The Biden campaign has reportedly informed Karen Bass she was not the VP pick. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris is up to 57 cents at PredictIt.
The Biden campaign has informed some of the women the former Vice President’s team vetted about his choice of running mate, three sources familiar with the matter tell CNN. Karen Bass was told by Biden himself that she was not the pick, a source familiar tells CNN.— Dana Bash (@DanaBashCNN) August 11, 2020
UPDATE 12:43 p.m.: Over the course of Tuesday morning, Rice has moved past Harris in a hurry. Rice is now trading at a max price of 49 cents, while Harris is down around 38 cents.
Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is closing in on his decision for who will be his running mate in the November election. The Democratic National Convention is a week away, and recent reports indicate his selection committee has finished their work and it’s now up to the former VP to make his choice.
Biden committed to selecting a women for the Vice Presidential slot, and the rumors and speculation have centered on a handful of women for the job. The group has included Senator Kamala Harris, former UN ambassador Susan Rice, Representative Karen Bass, Representative Val Demings, Senator Elizabeth Warren, and more recently, Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer.
Rumors are flying fast and furious that a decision is expected this week. People are using flight trackers to see who is traveling to Delaware from notable locations, and even speculation around who is and is not following who on Twitter.
Until Biden announces his decision, one option for trying to assess the situation is looking at betting markets. Traditional US oddsmakers are not allowed to offer lines on politics in any state where betting is legal. However, a company called PredictIt is exempted by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission because of the academic research they make publicly available to about 100 universities and think tanks across America. No one can bet more than $850 on any position in a market, meaning the stakes are somewhat subdued, but still enough where investors will take in all information to take the right position.
All futures contracts traded on the site are based on a $1.00 outcome, but they don’t always add up to a buck because of the bid-and-ask pricing on the exchange. Kamala Harris has been the favorite at PredictIt for some time now, with her current price at 44 cents. By comparison, Susan Rice is priced at 39 cents, Val Demings is at 11 cents, and Gretchen Whitmer is at 8 cents.
The pricing will fluctuate throughout the day, but you can also check out line movement over the past day through over the past 90 days. Harris peaked at 60 cents in late July, but Rice has slowly moved closer. If you look over 90 days, Rice has slowly moved up, passing Demings in early July.
We should find out this week, at which point we can focus solely on the presidential market.
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