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Predicting finishing order from groups at 2020 Workday Charity Open

We break down the picks pool on DraftKings Sportsbook for this weekend’s 2020 Workday Charity Open at Muirfield Village.

We start the first leg of our Muirfield Village swing on the PGA Tour with the Workday Charity Open. Instead of doing the John Deere Classic again, we’re going to Ohio a week early. Next week, Muirfield will host The Memorial, which should be another loaded field. As a result, we’ve got some top golfers back in play but are still missing a bunch of big names. Let’s take a look at DraftKings Sportsbook’s pool and which golfers you should fade.

Who will have better finishing position?

Group 1

  • Justin Thomas
  • Patrick Cantlay
  • Jon Rahm
  • 2 or more Tie

Of course we start off with the toughest group. Cantlay is the defending champ at Memorial, so he’ll be the trendy pick here. Thomas is coming off a week off after missing the cut at Travelers. His form isn’t in peak condition, but it’s JT. Rahm is similar to Thomas — elite golfer struggling since the return. As much as I love JT, he may be the way to go as far as fades.

Group 2

  • Hideki Matsuyama
  • Xander Schauffele
  • Brooks Koepka
  • 2 or more Tie

Another tough one. Koepka enters after taking a break and looked good at Travelers. Is he primed for a breakout at Muirfield? Could be. Matsuyama looked more like himself at Rocket Mortgage and his irons are red hot. Schauffele is a sleeper pick of mine in DFS, so again, tough call. I’d lean Koepka in case he comes out flat and can’t find his irons.

Group 3

  • Viktor Hovland
  • Justin Rose
  • Rickie Fowler
  • 2 or more Tie

#FadeFowler. There’s a lot to like about Rickie after his showing at the Rocket Mortgage, but it’s also Rickie. We don’t know what we’re going to get at Muirfield, which is a much tougher course than Detroit Golf Club. Rose has some of the best course history at Muirfield, so it’s going to be tough to fade him. Hovland enters in great form and is really a hot putter away from running away with a win.

Group 4

  • Patrick Reed
  • Collin Morikawa
  • Gary Woodland
  • 2 or more Tie

I think you go back to the Reed well after the missed cut and hope he finds the fairways. We know Reed’s putter can run hot and cold. Morikawa has been very volatile. After a second-place finish at Charles Schwab, Morikawa has been awful the past two tournaments. Woodland’s form also isn’t up to par but he’s probably the safest pick in this group. I’d fade Morikawa.

Group 5

  • Matt Kuchar
  • Marc Leishman
  • Sungjae Im
  • 2 or more Tie

Something tells me this could be the week Sungjae breaks through and we see a top 10. His irons have been trash though, and this isn’t the type of course that will make things easier on him. Kuchar returns after two-week hiatus at a course he loves. Kuchar won at Muirfield back in 2013 and has four other finishes in the top 15. He also missed the cut at Memorial last year. Leishman has win equity and we know he’s hot with his irons right now. Im may be the fade here.

Group 6

  • Jordan Spieth
  • Adam Hadwin
  • Bubba Watson
  • 2 or more Tie

We get Spieth back in the field this week, so that means more hot putter watch. Hadwin almost made a run at Rocket Mortgage and Watson has back-to-back missed cuts. Watson will be the trendy fade, so there’s some appeal in picking him here. Spieth could struggle a bit off the tee and would need to make up strokes with the putter, which isn’t easy at Muirfield.

Group 7

  • Joaquin Niemann
  • Jason Day
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick
  • 2 or more Tie

Niemann is going to be chalk and he’s got a legit shot at making a run in this tournament. Jason Day is Jason Day, but he’s also missing a ton of cuts and is better on bermuda grass than bentgrass. Fitz was a disaster at Travelers, but had made a string of cuts prior. Day is the fade here.

Group 8

  • Byeong Hun An
  • Jason Kokrak
  • Billy Horschel
  • 2 or more Tie

We can use some DFS prices to get a gauge on these three. Kokrak is priced down compared to both Benny An and Billy Ho. None of them enter with particularly good form, but at least Benny An has good course history at Muirfield. Horschel also has done well at Memorial. So Kokrak is the odd-man-out.

Group 9

  • Matthew Wolff
  • Kevin Streelman
  • Scottie Scheffler
  • 2 or more Tie

There’s a chance a ton of people pick Wolff after his near win at Rocket Mortgage. That isn’t a bad way of going about this group, but if we’re considering a fade, Wolff may not be a bad choice. Scheffler was nuclear at DGC last week. He somehow shot a 7-over on Thursday and 7-under on Friday. That kind of erratic play doesn’t give us much faith, but that 65 on Friday is encouraging at least. Streelman I’m not crazy about fading either. He’s got four top 20 finishes at Memorial in his past five trips.

Group 10

  • Cameron Champ
  • Louis Oosthuizen
  • Harold Varner III
  • 2 or more Tie

Believe it or not, I think this group is between Louis O and Cam Champ. So surprisingly, Varner may be the one to fade here. It isn’t because he hasn’t been golfing great — he has — it’s just his ceiling is a bit capped. We know Louis O and Cam Champ are both capable of top 20, maybe even top 10 finishes here. Can Varner do it? Sure, but I’d lean the other two first.

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