Election eve update: Polls start to close in less than 24 hours and sometime between then and an uncertain date we’ll find out whether Donald Trump remains President or Joe Biden replaces him in the White House.
Before then, you can still enter the DraftKings Sportsbook’s $100,000 Presidential Election Pool. Since launching, nearly 350,000 people have entered it, and we’ve got a look at results for all 12 questions.
1. Who will win the election? Donald Trump 59%, Joe Biden 41%
2. Who will win Florida? Donald Trump 74%, Joe Biden 26%
3. Who will win Arizona? Donald Trump 60%, Joe Biden 40%
4. Who will win Pennsylvania? Joe Biden 57%, Donald Trump 43%
5. Who will win Michigan? Joe Biden 57%, Donald Trump 43%
6. Who will win Wisconsin? Donald Trump 57%, Joe Biden 43%
7. Who will win North Carolina? Donald Trump 64%, Joe Biden 36%
8. Who will win New Jersey? Joe Biden 77%, Donald Trump 23%
9. Who will win Colorado? Joe Biden 69%, Donald Trump 31%
10. Who will win Indiana? Donald Trump 74%, Joe Biden 26%
11. Who will win West Virginia? Donald Trump 79%, Joe Biden 21%
12. Who will win Iowa? Donald Trump 68%, Joe Biden 32%
No matter which side of the political divide you’re on, there’s one way for you to win big on Election Day, November 3rd: Pick the winner for President and who is the winner of 11 different swing states in DraftKings Sportsbook’s $100,000 Presidential Election Pool.
It’s pretty simple: Select the next President of the United States, and also choose winner of the popular vote, and thus the electoral college electors, in the following states:
So what’s the best way to handicap this? First keep in mind your entries aren’t due until November 3rd, so waiting as long as possible is the best way to go here. There’s no need to put your choices in today.
But we’ve added a few resources for you to check out that might help as we get closer. FiveThirtyEight.com aggregates polls from across the country, including any publicly available polling, as well as state polls. Each poll is graded and weighted based on its accuracy in past elections, so not all data is treated equally. This helps to separate those that are accurate over a bigger sample from fly-by-night, potentially partisan operations using bad methodology.
FiveThirtyEight gave Donald Trump a 28.6% chance to win last time, which was higher than most prognosticators on Election Day, and their final numbers turned out to be pretty close. But just as in sports, sometimes the 7-2 underdog wins, and that’s why Hillary Clinton didn’t take the oath of office in January of 2017.
Here is the aggregation of current state polls from FiveThirtyEight for the 11 states in question:
538.com Polls July 6th
(Note: We’re not really sure why New Jersey is on here. We understand Republican Chris Christie served as governor for eight years recently, but it’s not exactly a contested state in this campaign. It’s almost as safe as California is for Biden).
As of this morning by the polls Joe Biden leads in eight states, one is an exact dead-heat tie, and two states in Indiana and West Virginia don’t have enough state polling at this point to give accurate data. But those two states of all 11 in question would appear to be the most likely to lean towards President Trump. There’s just not enough polling to give an accurate answer, but that might be because it’s a bit of a surprise those states could be considered in play in the first place.
Another place to gauge the pulse is PredictIt, where due to an exemption in the law for academic research, you can legally wager on the outcome of elections in the United States. Shares on the site are bought and sold just as futures contracts would be, so the price will show what a liquid market thinks about the odds of an electoral outcome.
And those two states that aren’t represented by polling yet are clearly in Trump’s favor via what PredictIt users believe.
Here are the market prices as of July 6th for the election in each of the 11 states:
PredictIt By State July 6th
Note that these are markets with bid and ask prices, so the totals don’t always add up to $1.00 exactly. Also note that they are based on party so if for some reason the nominee isn’t Joe Biden or Donald Trump, the betting action will stand via their replacement.
The numbers will of course change as we get closer to the election, but it’s a great starting point when discussing what the outcomes might be.
And it’s also good reminder that it’s only 120 days until the general election, so be sure to get registered to vote if you haven’t done so ASAP!
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA) or 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN) or 1-800-522-4700(NH/CO). NH/NJ/WV/IN/PA/CO only. 21+ (18+ NH). Eligibility Restrictions Apply. See website for details.