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DraftKings Sportsbook Hot Dog Contest Betting Insights

Matt Meiselman analyzes some DraftKings Sportsbook betting data for Saturday’s Fourth of July Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest.

The newest betting “sport” at DraftKings Sportsbook is one of the more exciting and highly anticipated events of the past few months. DraftKings users can now bet on the annual Fourth of July Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest here. The event, which will take place in Brooklyn, N.Y., at noon on Saturday, is the same event that’s been going on for decades. However, this year’s competition will be held indoors and without any fans in attendance.

Fans can get in on the action by downloading the DK Sportsbook app or by heading over to the DraftKings Sportsbook website.

Bettors got the action going earlier in the week, as the lines started moving quickly soon after they became available Wednesday morning. On the men’s side, Joey Chestnut is a -1000 favorite, and deservedly so, as he’s won this competition four consecutive years and 12 of the past 13. There may not be much of a chance that someone pulls off an upset, with the field being +550 to produce a winner, but there’s still drama surrounding whether or not Chestnut will top his previous high of 74 hot dogs and set a new world record.

Seventy-five hot dogs is obviously a lot to eat in just 10 minutes, but Chestnut has actually topped 70 in each of his past four wins. He set the current world record of 74 back in 2018, and the betting lines are indicating more of the same in 2020. The opening line of 72.5 shifted right off the bat on Wednesday as the -125 number on the over jumped to -150 and now has reached -182. This movement actually coincides with more bettors going with the under, as 60% of the bets are on under 72.5. The 40% share of over bets accounts for 61% of the handle, however, so there are in fact some larger bets being made on over 72.5.

Line movement toward the over is actually much more extreme on the women’s side, as DraftKings users look to be pretty optimistic about Miki Sudo. Sudo has won the women’s hot dog eating competition six consecutive times, but she doesn’t own the world record. That honor belongs to Sonya Thomas, who ate 45 hot dogs back in 2012. Sudo, just like Chestnut, is the overwhelming favorite in 2020 with a -835 line to make it seven in a row.

Despite the fact that she’s managed to down as many as 41 hot dogs (in 2017), Sudo’s total opened at just 37.5, perhaps because she only tallied 31 in last year’s event. Bettors remain confident, however, as there’s been enough action on the over to drive the total all the way up to 40.5 (-162 on the over). As with Chestnut, this line movement is also happening despite there being more bets on the under at 55%. The 45% share of over bets, however, is accounting for 71% of the handle.

Lastly, there’s an additional line for Joey Chestnut that’s set at 74.5, allowing for specific bets on whether or not he’ll break the record. DraftKings Sportsbook is boosting the odds for this outcome, and you can access that promotion here:

Hot Dog World Record: Joey Chestnut ate 74 Hot Dogs in 2018. Can he eat 75 in 2020? We are boosting him to +200 him to do it!

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

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