The 2020 Major League Baseball season gets underway in a little over 24 hours, and it’s going to be a fascinating one. MLB is operating on a shortened schedule coming off an abbreviated summer camp. Instead of having nearly a month and a half to get ready, players have had roughly three weeks after a nearly four-month layoff due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
A shortened season means variance will run high and we could see some surprises among teams and players. A brief hot streak suddenly could turn a traditional cellar-dwellar into a playoff contender. A cold streak could send a preseason favorite to the sidelines come October.
DraftKings Sportsbook unveiled new-look team win totals in late June to reflect the shortened season. The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers opened with the highest win totals (37.5), while the Baltimore Orioles (20.5) and Detroit Tigers (21.5) opened with the lowest win totals.
Now that the season is about to start, we thought we’d revisit the win totals and particularly the prices and how people are betting them. Below is a table that lists each team’s win total with the prices to bet the over and under when they first opened and now as of July 21st. Additionally, we’ve got the percentage of handle bet on the over and under for each team.
Two teams have seen their win total move (Boston Red Sox, Kansas City Royals), but otherwise it’s primarily been movement in the over/under price. The biggest movement belongs to the San Francisco Giants, with a big chunk of the handle moving under 25.5 to a costly -165.
The most bet-on win totals belong to the Cincinnati Reds, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, and Baltimore Orioles. The Mets, Yankees, and Phillies are popular teams in general, but DK has significant operations in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, which likely is influencing the heavier handle. The Minnesota Twins are honorable mention for most bet win totals. It’s notable that there is some reverse movement there, with more handle on under 34.5, but over 34.5 seeing a boost to -132.
The Los Angeles Angels have come off the board because of uncertainty surrounding Mike Trout playing the whole season. The Toronto Blue Jays were on the board recently, but are off the board as of July 22nd due to uncertainty surrounding where they’ll play the upcoming season.
MLB win total changes, July 22nd
| Team | Win total | Over 6/29 | Over 7/21 | Over handle | Under 6/29 | Under 7/21 | Under handle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Win total | Over 6/29 | Over 7/21 | Over handle | Under 6/29 | Under 7/21 | Under handle |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 31.5 | +100 | +100 | 31% | -124 | -124 | 69% |
| Atlanta Braves | 33.5 | -117 | -110 | 62% | -107 | -110 | 38% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 20.5 | -114 | -114 | 9% | -109 | -109 | 91% |
| Boston Red Sox | 30.5 (was 31.5) | -109 | -125 | 1% | -114 | +100 | 99% |
| Chicago Cubs | 32.5 | -112 | -115 | 34% | -112 | -108 | 66% |
| Chicago White Sox | 31.5 | -112 | -130 | 92% | -112 | 105 | 8% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 31.5 | -112 | -124 | 96% | -112 | +100 | 4% |
| Cleveland Indians | 32.5 | -112 | -112 | 18% | -112 | -112 | 82% |
| Colorado Rockies | 26.5 | -118 | -118 | 95% | -106 | -106 | 5% |
| Detroit Tigers | 21.5 | -112 | -121 | 68% | -112 | -104 | 32% |
| Houston Astros | 35.5 | -112 | -106 | 40% | -112 | -118 | 60% |
| Kansas City Royals | 24.5 (was 23.5) | -114 | -106 | 99% | -109 | -118 | 1% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 31.5 | -112 | Off board | Off board | -112 | Off board | Off board |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 37.5 | -112 | -110 | 91% | -112 | -110 | 9% |
| Miami Marlins | 24.5 | +100 | +100 | 21% | -124 | -124 | 79% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 30.5 | -112 | -112 | 54% | -112 | -112 | 46% |
| Minnesota Twins | 34.5 | -120 | -132 | 26% | -105 | +105 | 74% |
| New York Mets | 32.5 | -109 | -109 | 63% | -114 | -114 | 37% |
| New York Yankees | 37.5 | -106 | -104 | 89% | -118 | -121 | 11% |
| Oakland Athletics | 33.5 | -112 | -112 | 92% | -112 | -112 | 8% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 31.5 | -112 | -112 | 75% | -112 | -112 | 25% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 25.5 | -112 | +110 | 23% | -112 | -134 | 77% |
| San Diego Padres | 30.5 | -112 | -121 | 96% | -112 | -103 | 4% |
| San Francisco Giants | 25.5 | -112 | +132 | 10% | -112 | -165 | 90% |
| Seattle Mariners | 24.5 | -112 | -112 | 1% | -112 | -112 | 99% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 32.5 | -112 | -112 | 26% | -112 | -112 | 74% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 33.5 | -122 | -130 | 96% | -103 | +105 | 4% |
| Texas Rangers | 28.5 | -106 | -106 | 74% | -118 | -118 | 26% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 27.5 | -120 | -112 | 30% | -105 | -112 | 70% |
| Washington Nationals | 33.5 | -117 | -103 | 3% | -107 | -121 | 97% |
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