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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Diakiese vs. Fiziev at UFC Fight Night

We break down the last minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Marc Diakiese vs. Rafael Fiziev at UFC Fight Night.

Opponents Marc Diakiese of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rafael Fiziev of Kazakhstan face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in inside Flash Forum on UFC Fight Island on July 17, 2020 in Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Update 3:00 p.m.: Not much has changed on this fight, as the betting action has only moved nominally two hours before the start of the card.

Updated Betting splits

Marc Diakiese: -167 (86% of action, 61% of bets)
Rafael Fiziev: -+135 (14% of action, 39% of bets)

Two lightweights looking to find the rankings in a stacked division square off tonight when Marc Diakiese and Rafael Fiziev do battle. Both fighters are outside the top 15 and looking to climb the rankings in their weight class.

Diakiese is the more experienced fighter with a 14-3 record. The “Bonecrusher” moniker implies bruising strength, but only six of his wins are via knockout. He only lands 2.86 strikes per minute and lacks accuracy, but his 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes means he’ll want this match on the mat. He began his MMA career with a 12-0 start, but had lost three in a row in the UFC before victories over fellow competitor tonight Joe Duffy last March, and Lando Vannata last September.

“Ataman” Fiziev is 7-1 and has showcased more destructive power than his opponent with of his seven wins have come via knockout. The sample size for Fiziev is small in two UFC fights where he’s 1-1, but his strikes landed per minute (4.08), striking accuracy (50 percent) has been better than Diakiese’s so far. Fiziev is looking to win a second straight in the octagon after getting his first UFC victory over Alex White via unanimous decision last October.

Here are the betting odds at DraftKings Sportsbook for Marc Diakiese vs. Rafael Fiziev at UFC Fight Night from Fight Island on July 18th:

Betting splits

Marc Diakiese: -167 (85% of action, 67% of bets)
Rafael Fiziev: -+135 (15% of action, 33% of bets)

Here are the DraftKings DFS salaries for Marc Diakiese vs. Rafael Fiziev tonight:

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Marc Diakiese: $8,500
Rafael Fiziev: $7,700

Watch this fight, and enjoy it. But you might want to avoid this for DFS purposes completely. Diakiese is a decent favorite, but doesn’t have too much statistical activity even in his wins. If Fiziev can come in and score a KO, of course there’s value here, but he’s yet to be in the cage with someone of Diakiese’s talent. If you need the judges to beat Alex White, you might need more help to beat the current opponent.

Find another fight to put on your roster, as this could be a fun one for MMA nerds, but not for DFS players.

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