NASCAR All Star - Lesson 01 - Contrarian Picks

In other DFS contests, it’s easy to zig when others zag, but not in DFS NASCAR. Other sports have hundreds of players to choose from and many ways to differentiate your lineup from your opponents. In NASCAR, you’ve got 43 drivers; that’s it, and some of those drivers don’t have a snowball’s chance in hell. Factor in salary cap restrictions and it’s very difficult to create a unique lineup among thousands of entries, but It can be done.

Expert Picks

Let’s face it; a lot of DFS NASCAR players are not NASCAR fans. They do research, but they also lean heavily on expert pick articles. The drivers that are featured in the various pick articles across the internet, like the ones at the Draftkings Playbook, will he heavily owned. To separate your lineup from the rest of the field, you’ll need to ignore some of the expert picks.

Now, some drivers are a sure thing and you’ll need to pick the chalk, but as you fill out your lineup, stray from the experts’ picks. Don’t ignore the analysis and reasoning, but don’t take the pick if you’re going to be contrarian.

If an expert on the radio or on a Youtube show says they don’t like a driver, then that’s your driver. A contrarian loves what everyone else hates.

Research

If you want to look at things different than others, then look at different things than others.

What stat is everyone else using? Throw it out. If you follow that stat, then you’ll follow the rest of the DFS field down the same hole. What stats are we talking about?

2015 results
Past track statistics
Qualifying results

It would be ludicrous to completely ignore these stats, but for several of your picks you need to look elsewhere. What stats are great for contrarian plays? The same stats. Huh? Look at the same stats, but look at them differently. Ignore the results. Dig deeper and analyze the races.

On a box score, it will say that a driver finished 20th, but there might be more to it. On racing stats websites, you can see a driver’s lap by lap results. The driver might have been up front all day, but one mistake cost the drive a good finish.

If you Google a driver and a specific race, you will find details about the race. The driver might have had the best car, but a speeding on pit road penalty cost the driver big time. Most DFS players are going to overlook this information because it requires more work. This is key to finding the drivers that no one else is picking.

It’s not necessarily finding different stats, it’s looking at the stats differently. If you want to win a big time GPP, then you’ve got to dig in and understand the nuisances. Most DFS players want simplicity. The results are good enough, but nothing in life is simple.

In closing, you’re not trying to build the best lineup. You’re building a contrarian lineup. The best lineup does not win GPPs, the winning lineup does.

If all else fails, throw together a lineup that you do not think will win. You’ll be surprised.

Continue Reading NASCAR Training Camp

NASCAR All Star – Lesson 01 – Contrarian Picks
NEXT LESSON – NASCAR All Star – Lesson 02 – Laps Led, Fast Laps, Clean Air
NASCAR All Star – Lesson 03 – Short Tracks
NASCAR All Star – Lesson 04 – Value Play: Place Differential

Advance to NASCAR Hall of Fame Lessons
Return to NASCAR Rookie Lessons
Return to NASCAR Training Camp Home