Surprising or not, daily fantasy NASCAR statistics have been studies academically. The crux of this study was to determine the most valid statistics for predicting fantasy NASCAR results. I’ll save you the time of reading the twenty-two page research paper, and give you what you need to know.
Current Season Stats (or last 15 races)
There is a strong correlation between the results of a single race and the 15 races before it. Basically, if a driver and the team have been performing well, then they will continue to perform well regardless of track type. In some daily fantasy sports, we overplay hot streaks. In daily fantasy NASCAR, if a team has built a fast car 15 weeks in a row, then they’ll do it again. The reverse is true as well, the greatest driver will lose every week, if he doesn’t have the equipment.
Analyze the last 15 races, and highlight the races at similar tracks. If the current race is at an intermediate track (1.5 mile oval), then weigh the previous intermediate race results heavier than other results in your final analysis.
Driver Rating will tell you how well the driver performed in those races.
Past Track Results
The Daily Fantasy NASCAR community is divided on what stat is the most significant in prediction. Some believe that the past track results stat is a more useful statistic than current season stats. In the end, it’s best to use both and use your own judgement to decide which will weigh the heaviest.
To understand why past track results are vital for prediction, you must forget the idea that NASCAR is just driving in circles. Each track is unique from the distance to the banking to the individual cracks in the track. We cannot pretend to know what it’s like, but the drivers and the stats will say the same thing – drivers do well at specific race tracks. Drivers have every bump, dip, and groove in the track programmed into their brains. It’s like that guy that can beat Mario Bros in five minutes.
Nothing really matters until the car comes off the hauler. If a driver runs fast in practice and qualifying, then he’s got a fast car and is comfortable. This is the equivalent of Steph Curry hitting 77 consecutive three point shots in practice. Yes he’s have a great season, but he’s feeling it tonight.
Continue Reading NASCAR Training Camp
NASCAR Rookie – Lesson 01 – Welcome to Daily Fantasy NASCAR
NASCAR Rookie – Lesson 02 – Stats to Start
NEXT LESSON – NASCAR Rookie – Lesson 03 – Scoring Tips and Tricks
NASCAR Rookie – Lesson 04 – Using Player Cards to Build Lineups