CFB All Star - Lesson 01 - Random Factors

In football, especially in games played outside, there are all kinds of outside factors that can affect a team and their ability to succeed on the field. Since we only want to target successful players, these factors have an effect on us as well.

Weather Conditions

If you’re playing NCAAF DFS, you should learn to observe the weather conditions, especially as the season grows old. Unless you’re targeting players playing in a dome (which is very unlikely considering there are only seven teams that play in a dome, with Syracuse being the only team from a major conference to play indoors) you need to keep tabs on the weather. There are just some very simple things we need to take note of on a given weekend that will help us with our lineups. If it’s incredibly hot, like it is at the beginning of the season, beware of players cramping up. This isn’t a huge part of the process, but it definitely happens and can ruin a good game for a player. If it’s frigid and/or snowing, it hampers the passing game as the ball becomes harder to catch for obvious reasons. Rain falls under the snowing part. A wet football is hard to catch. If it’s incredibly windy, take the same precautions. It’s hard for a quarterback to throw accurately when the ball doesn’t go straight. No matter how much people want to ignore it, weather is absolutely a part of the game and we definitely need to have an understanding of what is going on.

Team Dynamics

This section covers a multitude of things that can affect a team and how they’re playing on any given week. We’ll go over a few things that can help you get a read on what’s going on behind the scenes.

Player Injuries: In recent years, teams have gotten a lot better about releasing injury news, but there will still be instances of a player being injured and it not being reported to mass media (ESPN, Yahoo, etc.). Because this happens, it’s a good idea to use Twitter to follow beat writers for specific teams leading up to lock, as well as trusted college football reporters from various regions of the country, as they’ll tweet out the information, usually, as soon as they find it out. If a player gets injured, it can be a good idea to play his backup as he will be underpriced relative to his expected contribution. Quarterback is one position that it can be very risky to play the backup, as that is a position that takes time to get “in the rhythm” and play well. Running backs are generally “plug and play”, meaning that when a top running back goes down, play the backup in almost any situation as the workload shouldn’t change a whole lot.

Disciplinary Action

Once in a while, a player will get arrested during the week of a game and the team won’t release anything about the situation before game day, leaving us all wondering what is going on. Again, follow beat writers and occasionally tweet at them, as they are generally very helpful in these situations and will know if/for how long a player will be suspended due to an arrest. Treat these situations similarly to injuries, but with more precaution. If it surfaces that a player you want to play has had disciplinary issues, but has not yet been publicly suspended, it is a good idea to avoid the player as he might not even suit up for the game.

Coaching Change

This normally isn’t a problem in the beginning of the season, but later in the season, coaches of underachieving teams will get fired. This can be due to his team just being bad, or that the players just don’t respect the coaching staff. If it’s a situation that the team is just bad, not a whole lot will change. If it’s a situation in which the team isn’t trying because of the coach, a coaching change can easily light a spark under the players and bring out the true talent.

These situations don’t happen every week, but they definitely happen throughout the course of the season and you should follow each situation closely as things can change quickly.

Continue Reading CFB Training Camp

CFB All Star – Lesson 01 – Random Factors
NEXT LESSON – CFB All Star – Lesson 02 – How to Approach the FLEX Position
CFB All Star – Lesson 03 – How to Approach the 2 QB Roster
CFB All Star – Lesson 04 – Using Stats to Predict Performance

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